Every February and March, baseball prognosticators gather to create lists predicting the upcoming season. They debate who will win their division, who will be crowned the Most Valuable Player, Cy Young, or Rookie of the Year in each league, and of course, who will face off in the World Series. As for me, next year I plan to take a different approach to predicting the World Series. I’ll put all the teams in two hats – one for the American League and one for the National League – draw names, and then justify how that particular World Series matchup came to be. Honestly, it might be just as accurate as my predictions for 2023.
In my current projection for the World Series, I have the Diamondbacks facing off against the Rangers. Let me be clear, both of these teams have exceeded my expectations this postseason. Once my beloved Cubs were eliminated, I found myself switching sides multiple times, unable to decide who to cheer for. Ultimately, I decided to root for the National League, but I have to acknowledge that both teams have given me plenty of reasons to support them throughout October. These teams are exciting to watch, with electrifying offenses that provide different forms of entertainment. While I understand if you have personal or political reasons for disliking the Rangers, or if you’re still upset with the Diamondbacks for knocking out the Cubs, I believe both teams have merits worth appreciating. However, I give a slight edge to the Diamondbacks.
The Diamondbacks have made one small adjustment to their World Series roster, swapping out their 13th pitcher for a utility player. They now have 12 pitchers and 14 position players. Now, I’ll be honest, I’ve scrutinized this roster countless times since the Diamondbacks eliminated the Cubs, and I keep asking myself, “How did this team manage to beat every opponent in their path?” The 2023 Cubs, in my opinion, were at least as good as the Diamondbacks, yet they lost six out of seven games against them, effectively ending their postseason hopes. And it wasn’t just the Cubs – the Diamondbacks have come out on top against strong teams like the Brewers, Dodgers, and Phillies. Every time Arizona has needed a win, they’ve elevated their game and found a way to succeed. Two factors, in particular, give the Diamondbacks an advantage in this series.
Firstly, when the Diamondbacks use their speed and run aggressively, their offense becomes much more potent. With 16 stolen bases in the postseason, Arizona is tied for the lead with the Phillies. If they can successfully run against the Rangers, they can boost their offense and have a better chance against a team favored by Vegas. Determining the Rangers’ vulnerability to stolen bases was a challenge, as they have only allowed three stolen bases this postseason. However, it’s worth noting that Rangers catcher Jonah Heim is one of the top ten catchers in baseball when it comes to controlling the running game. Keep your eyes on that variable early in the series, as it could provide the Diamondbacks with an edge.
The second advantage the Diamondbacks have is their pitching, particularly their relievers. Once they have a lead, their bullpen has been nearly impenetrable. In the postseason, Arizona’s relievers have a combined record of 5-0 across 49 innings pitched, with an ERA of 2.94. Admittedly, this slightly exceeds their expected performance based on their 3.40 FIP, but it’s still excellent. They also lead all postseason teams with six saves in October. In contrast, the Rangers’ bullpen has a record of 3-2 across 48⅓ innings pitched, with a 3.72 ERA and a 5.28 WHIP. Despite this potential weakness in the Rangers’ bullpen, their overall offense makes a strong case for them.
The Rangers possess a powerful offense and have been the highest-scoring team in the postseason, with 71 runs. The Phillies come in second with 61 runs, while the Diamondbacks have scored 51 runs in the same number of games. Looking at team wRC+ – a metric that measures a team’s ability to score runs relative to the league average – the Diamondbacks have an average rating of 99, while the Rangers boast the best offense with a rating of 124. For the Diamondbacks to succeed, their relievers must continue their dominant performance, and rookie pitcher Brandon Pfaadt needs to maintain his strong form. So far, Pfaadt has pitched four games in the postseason, with an impressive ERA of 2.70 compared to a lackluster regular season performance.
Upon examining the Rangers’ World Series roster, it’s clear that if a team is winning, there’s no need to make drastic changes. Their offense is elite, and while the bullpen may be a bit shaky, their starting pitching has been exceptional. Rangers starters have pitched 59⅔ innings in 12 games, compared to 57 innings for the Diamondbacks in the same number of games. The Rangers’ starters have a combined ERA of 3.62, aligning closely with their 3.61 FIP. The Diamondbacks, on the other hand, have a 3.63 ERA, but their FIP sits at 4.94. It will be interesting to see if the Rangers can take advantage of this gap between ERA and FIP more effectively than the Phillies did in their series against the Diamondbacks.
In conclusion, this World Series matchup sets the stage for an unlikely clash between two teams constructed in vastly different ways. The Diamondbacks feature a roster filled with rookie talent and a few free agents who bring minimal postseason experience. They don’t seem to care about others’ expectations of them or the odds in Vegas. On the other hand, the Rangers have spent significant amounts of money during consecutive offseasons, acquired top-tier pitcher Max Scherzer, and have veterans who have tasted success before. Although I’m thrilled by the possibilities of either team triumphing in the Fall Classic, I can’t bring myself to doubt the Diamondbacks again after doubting them all season. I predict a thrilling seven-game series, with the Diamondbacks emerging victorious. Let’s hope this World Series will leave a lasting impression as we enter the long offseason. So, who are you cheering for in the World Series?
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