The UAE must act swiftly to secure COP28 before it’s too late

The hosting of a UN climate COP conference by the United Arab Emirates (UAE), a petrostate and an authoritarian regime, is not unprecedented. However, the selection of Sultan al-Jaber, an oil executive, as the president of this year’s COP28 meeting in Dubai has sparked widespread dissatisfaction and raised doubts about the UAE’s ability to handle the event.

With just over five months left before the meeting begins, Abu Dhabi must work harder to address the concerns that led more than 130 legislators from the US and EU to call for Jaber’s removal. This call reflects the broader public unease. Jaber, who also runs the state-owned oil and gas group, the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc), will oversee COP28 while simultaneously working to increase oil production capacity, creating an inherent conflict of interest.

There is a clear conflict between the UAE’s fossil fuel interests and the need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in order to limit global warming to the goal set by the Paris Agreement. The UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emphasizes the necessity of a substantial reduction in fossil fuel use, as these fuels account for over 75% of emissions.

Time is running out to address climate change, with global temperatures already exceeding 1.1C and increasingly severe heatwaves, floods, and wildfires. Scientists predict that temperatures could surpass the 1.5C threshold within the next five years. These urgent circumstances underscore the need for effective action.

Following a disappointing COP27 in Egypt last year, the UAE initially made positive strides for COP28. It brought in climate experts and consultants from the West to contribute to the conference. It championed the inclusion of a “global stocktake” on progress towards the Paris targets in order to stimulate further climate action. To enhance convenience, the UAE arranged to host the meeting and its anticipated 70,000 attendees in a single massive convention center in Dubai, eliminating the need for multiple venues.

The decision to appoint an oil executive as COP president, although questionable, had some internal logic. Jaber has prior experience with COP and was the CEO of the UAE renewables group, Masdar, during a time when green energy was not yet mainstream in the Gulf region. Optimists believed that Jaber could leverage the influence of Adnoc to encourage all oil producers to actively pursue decarbonization.

There were also hopes that he could facilitate progress in climate finance. However, achieving this required strong diplomatic skills, which have proven challenging for Jaber. His COP28 team has severed ties with at least three international communications agencies over the past year. Furthermore, his recent remarks about cutting fossil fuel emissions rather than their usage, aligning with the oil and gas industry’s focus on carbon capture technology, have raised concerns among climate diplomats.

Adding to the strain on the already tense COP, the UAE invited Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad to attend. Jaber’s statements during pre-COP28 discussions in Bonn lacked a clear timeline for phasing out fossil fuels. Most significantly, he failed to outline the UAE’s plan for achieving substantial progress during the Dubai conference, a challenge that numerous past COPs have struggled with. The UAE must urgently disclose a comprehensive plan that accelerates the global transition away from fossil fuels in an orderly, fair, and rapid manner. Another failed COP would be detrimental to the world’s collective efforts to combat climate change.