Last night marked the culmination of Kevin McCarthy’s reckoning.
The consequences of pandering to his party’s extreme factions, engaging in desperate deals, and breaking promises were finally catching up with him. The House Republicans’ failure in the 2022 elections was the ultimate price to pay.
Since Donald Trump assumed control of the party, Republicans have faced numerous electoral setbacks. They lost the popular vote in the 2016 presidential election, the House in 2018, the presidency in 2020, and the Senate in 2021.
The 2022 election cycle was anticipated as the moment to break the Trump curse. It was seen as the year when a red wave would sweep away the “woke mob” in Congress led by Joe Biden. However, Republicans only managed to gain a marginal victory by reclaiming the majority in the U.S. House of Representatives.
Yet, this victory proved illusory. Although Democrats lost the majority, Republicans did not secure a functional majority of their own.
Nonetheless, they attempted to forge ahead with an ambitious agenda, even pushing for an impeachment inquiry against President Biden. Achieving these goals required their narrow majority to act in unison, setting aside personal preferences for the collective will.
Unsurprisingly, this unity never materialized.
This brought them to Plan B: confronting the reality that they lacked a functioning majority, reaching across the aisle, making deals, and conducting business through bipartisan cooperation.
In contemporary Republican politics, accepting reality is challenging as it presents an uncomfortable truth.
In reality, Trump has been a significant liability for Republicans, consistently losing votes for the party. He secured the presidency in 2016 with a narrow victory margin similar to Michael Dukakis’ in 1988, then cost the party its House majority in 2018. Trump’s defeat in the 2020 presidential election was decisive, and his actions on January 6, 2021, during the illegal Capitol rampage further damaged the party. His insistence on denying the election results harmed Republicans in the 2022 elections. His demand for a Biden investigation and impeachment in 2023 has resulted in an embarrassing fiasco. However, no Republican leader dare vocalize these truths.
Working with Democrats is seen as the ultimate taboo, except when it means complete domination by Republicans: “We win, you lose.” In this context, McCarthy had no choice but to forge ahead, acting as if he commanded a majority even when he did not and insulting the minority, despite knowing that he might need their support at any moment.
That moment arrived, and McCarthy sought Democratic votes to save himself from rebellious members. However, he offered nothing in return, not even basic politeness.
Unfortunately for McCarthy, this approach did not yield the desired results, leading us to where we are now.
Where we currently stand is a country with a firm majority opposing Trump, now facing a pro-Trump minority that believes it has an indisputable right to rule without compromise.
To establish a stable majority in the House, the next Republican leader must establish a working agreement with Democrats, effectively bypassing the extremists in the GOP caucus. However, this agreement must be implicit and possibly denied, as any deal that displays respect for the opposition will be seen as betrayal by partisan Republicans. Leading the GOP requires perpetuating delusions and fantasies, such as the belief that Trump won in 2020 and that the party did not lose in 2022.
The Republican so-called majority in the House survives by holding itself hostage. McCarthy secured his speakership by allowing any member to trigger a vote to remove him. He avoided a default in May by agreeing to face a government shutdown in October. He further extended this by 47 days, ultimately compromising his own leadership.
The next leader will have to manage another set of delusions and fantasies, particularly those associated with the Biden impeachment inquiry. The reality is that Republicans have made numerous accusations, but have little evidence to support any claims against President Biden other than his troubled son. The fantasy is that they will uncover proof of a massive criminal scheme involving the president.
For seven years, Republicans shielded and enabled Trump, the most corrupt and lawless president in American history. They now yearn to believe that Biden is equally if not more corrupt, and they refuse to let go of this notion, regardless of facts. The next ringmaster will have to deliver a more captivating act to the fevered fans in the political circus.
Unless Republicans overcome their aversion to reality and find a way to collaborate with their opponents, the country will continue to face crises, drama, and ineffective governance. Alternatively, voters in November 2024 can replace this dysfunctional majority, which thrives on falsehoods, with a functional majority capable of working with factual information.
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