Not long ago, the notion that a former president or major-party presidential nominee would face serious legal jeopardy seemed unfathomable. However, today, staying updated on the numerous cases against Donald Trump requires legal expertise and keen attention to detail.
All in all, Trump is confronted with 91 felony counts across two state courts and two federal districts, any of which could potentially result in a prison sentence. Additionally, he contends with a civil suit in New York that has the potential to bring drastic changes to his business empire, including the closure of operations in his home state. Meanwhile, he leads the Republican candidate race for the presidency. If the court cases progress timely, he may find himself campaigning while his legal fate hangs in the balance.
Below is a summary of the primary legal cases against Trump, including important dates, an assessment of the severity of charges, and expectations for their outcomes.
New York State: Fraud
In the fall of 2022, New York Attorney General Letitia James filed a civil suit against Trump, his adult sons, and his former aide Allen Weisselberg, accusing them of a multi-year scheme. Allegedly, Trump intentionally misrepresented property values to either reduce his tax liability or improve loan terms, all with the intention of inflating his net worth.
When?
Last month, a judge ruled against Trump and his co-defendants, stating that many of their claims were blatantly fraudulent. Consequently, he deemed a trial unnecessary. The court proceedings to determine the amount of damages that Trump must pay began this Monday in Manhattan and may continue for several weeks or months.
Gravity of the allegation
While fraud is a serious offense, this case is relatively pedestrian compared to some of the other legal matters Trump is entangled in. It is a civil case rather than a criminal one, and although it could lead to significant consequences such as Trump’s company being banned from operating in New York, loss of valuable properties, and millions in fines, the stakes are lower, both for Trump personally and for the nation, than in other cases against him.
Plausibility of a guilty verdict
Justice Arthur Engoron has already determined that Trump committed fraud. The outstanding questions concern the damages he must pay and the implications of Engoron’s ruling for Trump’s business and properties in New York.
Manhattan: Defamation and Sexual Assault
Besides the government cases, Trump is also involved in an ongoing defamation case with writer E. Jean Carroll. Carroll claimed that Trump sexually assaulted her in a department store dressing room in the 1990s. When Trump denied the accusation, Carroll sued him for defamation and later added a battery claim.
When?
In May 2023, a jury found Trump liable for sexual assault and defamation, awarding Carroll $5 million in damages. Another defamation claim against Trump is still pending.
Gravity of the allegation
Although this case does not directly relate to the fundamental issues of the rule of law and democratic governance that some of the criminal cases do, it is a significant matter. The judge’s unequivocal statement that Trump raped Carroll has not received adequate attention.
Plausibility of a guilty verdict
Trump has already been found guilty of defamation and sexual assault. It is probable that he will face further defamation charges.
Manhattan: Hush Money
In March 2023, Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg became the first prosecutor to level felony charges against Trump. Bragg accuses Trump of falsifying business records to facilitate hush money payments to women who claimed to have had sexual relationships with him.
When?
The trial is scheduled to begin on March 25, 2024. However, the judge overseeing the case has hinted at the possibility of changing the date due to Trump’s involvement in multiple ongoing court cases. Any discussions regarding rescheduling will not take place until February.
Gravity of the allegation
Falsifying records is a criminal offense. However, some have compared this case to Al Capone’s conviction for tax evasion – it is not the most significant crime, but it nonetheless resulted in his infamy. The fact that this case does not involve actions that directly undermine democracy or national security makes it feel less substantial, although the other cases have set an exceedingly high bar for determining the gravity of Trump’s actions.
Plausibility of a guilty verdict
Bragg’s case faces challenges, including the statute of limitations, reliance on a potentially unreliable witness in Trump’s former fixer Michael Cohen, and untested legal theories. In summary, this Manhattan case appears to be the least significant and legally weakest among the criminal cases. Some Trump critics were disappointed that Bragg was the first to bring criminal charges against the former president.
Department of Justice: Mar-a-Lago Documents
Special Counsel Jack Smith from the U.S. Justice Department has charged Trump with 37 felonies related to his removal of documents from the White House upon leaving office. The charges include withholding national-security information, obstruction of justice, possession of unauthorized documents, and making false statements. Trump took boxes of documents and stored them haphazardly in various properties, refusing to return them to the government despite multiple requests.
When?
Smith filed charges in June 2023. The trial is scheduled for May 20, 2024. However, Smith must move expeditiously, as Trump or any Republican president would likely terminate the case upon assuming office in January 2025.
Gravity of the allegation
Though seemingly nonsensical, these crimes are of significant concern. Safeguarding the nation’s secrets is a crucial responsibility for any public official with classified clearance. Not only did Trump put these documents at risk, but he allegedly refused to comply with a subpoena, tried to conceal them, and misled the government through his attorneys.
Plausibility of a guilty verdict
This case may be the most straightforward, as the facts and legal theories are relatively clear. However, Smith drew an unfavorable assignment when assigned to Judge Aileen Cannon, a Trump appointee who has occasionally ruled in Trump’s favor on procedural matters.
Fulton County: Election Subversion
In Fulton County, Georgia, which encompasses most of Atlanta, District Attorney Fani Willis brought a racketeering case against Trump and 18 others. The case alleges a conspiracy spanning weeks and states to steal the 2020 election.
When?
Willis obtained the indictment in August. Given the large number of defendants, the case is complex and challenging to track. One defendant who tampered with election equipment recently reached a plea deal. Two other defendants, Kenneth Chesebro and Sidney Powell, are scheduled to stand trial starting on October 23, with proceedings expected to last three to five months. No trial date has been set for the remaining defendants, but it is unlikely to occur before 2024.
Gravity of the allegation
More than any other case, this one seeks to address the full extent of the attack on democracy following the 2020 election.
Plausibility of a guilty verdict
Expert opinions on this matter vary. It is an enormous case for a local prosecutor, even in a county as large as Fulton. The racketeering law allows Willis to cover a broad range of evidence, including a recorded phone call in which Trump asked Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger to “find” 11,000 votes. However, persuading a jury to convict Trump will still be a formidable challenge.
Department of Justice: Election Subversion
Special Counsel Smith has also charged Trump with four federal felonies related to his attempts to remain in power after losing the 2020 election. This case is being heard in Washington, D.C.
When?
Trump was indicted by a grand jury on August 1. The trial is scheduled for March 4, 2024. Similar to the other DOJ case, Smith must act swiftly before Trump or any other Republican president can terminate the case after assuming office in January 2025.
Gravity of the allegation
These charges are arguably the most crucial because they address Trump’s efforts to undermine the democratic process following his election loss in 2020.
Plausibility of a guilty verdict
This case is relatively straightforward, and the facts and legal theories are relatively simple. However, Smith faces an unfavorable circumstance as he was assigned Judge Aileen Cannon, a Trump appointee who has occasionally ruled in Trump’s favor on procedural matters.
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