During a recent meeting of Democrats in rural southwestern Iowa, a man posed an interesting question to the speaker of the evening, Rob Sand. He asked about three noncontroversial issues that Democrats should be discussing. Sand, Iowa’s state auditor, responded by mentioning new state laws regarding democracy and education, as well as their support for abortion rights. This caught my attention because discussing abortion rights is not typically a topic Democrats in competitive states focus on, especially committed centrists like Sand.
Looking back at previous elections, it’s easy to see how certain narratives emerge. For example, the 2018 blue wave was seen as a woman-led backlash against a controversial president. In 2022, Democrats performed better than expected, partly due to the prominence of abortion rights as an issue. Now, a year after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, Democrats are looking to replicate and enhance their successes by prioritizing abortion rights in their platform leading up to 2024. They want all of their elected officials, even state auditors like Sand, to address the issue. Yasmin Radjy, the executive director of Swing Left, a progressive political group, expressed confidence that this strategy will yield positive results.
However, Republicans may be better prepared this time around. After the leaked draft opinion prior to the Dobbs decision last May, many believed that abortion would no longer be at the forefront of voters’ minds by the time November arrived. But that was not the case. Democrats celebrated better-than-expected results, avoiding a predicted red wave. The issue of abortion continues to resonate with voters and has even gained potency. Recent polling indicates that a record number of registered voters prioritize abortion when making their voting decisions, with most of them supporting abortion rights. State efforts to restrict abortion access have actually made a significant portion of Americans more supportive of abortion rights.
Republicans in various states have implemented restrictive laws and outright bans on abortion, sparking public outcry and attention. Stories of pregnant women facing life-threatening situations after being denied abortions have garnered widespread attention. Given the sustained interest and sentiment surrounding this issue, it is unlikely to diminish by November 2024.
The Democratic strategists I spoke with emphasized the effectiveness of making abortion rights a central issue, particularly in purple states where winning over moderates and independents is crucial. By framing the conversation around personal liberty, candidates can appeal to a wide range of voters. Democratic candidates don’t even have to explicitly mention abortion; they just need to use the language of freedom to connect with voters.
Even President Joe Biden, who hasn’t always been a seamless messenger on abortion, has embraced this freedom framework in his reelection-announcement ad. It’s advantageous for Democrats that the Republican contenders for the presidential nomination have been relatively vague about their stance on abortion. This allows Democrats to portray them as extreme on the issue, potentially working to their advantage in the general election.
Republican strategists were less willing to discuss abortion as a winning issue for their party. However, Kellyanne Conway, an adviser to the Republican National Committee, believes that Republicans can be successful in campaigning on abortion if they frame the conversation properly. Conway advises Republican candidates to clarify their stance on exceptions such as rape, incest, and the life of the mother, in order to appeal to voters who may not support outright bans but also don’t support unrestricted access to abortion.
In conclusion, Democrats are focusing on abortion rights as a central issue in the lead-up to the 2024 elections. They believe it will resonate with voters and help them replicate their successes in previous elections. Republicans, on the other hand, are being urged to clarify their position on abortion and frame the issue in a way that appeals to voters. Both parties recognize the significance of abortion rights in shaping the political landscape, and it remains to be seen how this issue will play out in future elections.
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