Donald Trump faced a new criminal indictment this week – the fourth set of charges brought by prosecutors within five months. The latest indictment, unveiled by Fulton County district attorney Fani Willis in Georgia, accuses Trump of conspiring with top aides and allies in a racketeering scheme to overturn the results of the 2020 election in the state. Despite Trump conceding that these legal troubles will divert him from the 2024 campaign trail, they have surprisingly boosted his standing in the Republican primary race.
During a Republican party dinner in Alabama, Trump said, “Any time they file an indictment, we go way up in the polls. We need one more indictment to close out this election. One more indictment and this election is closed out. Nobody has even a chance.” Trump’s lead in the Republican primary race has actually widened since the first indictment in late March.
At that time, Trump had the support of 45.3% of Republican primary voters, compared to 27% for Ron DeSantis. Now, the gap is even wider, with 52.7% of Republicans backing Trump compared to 14% for DeSantis, according to FiveThirtyEight’s polling average. The indictments have energized the conservative base who view Trump as a victim of political persecution, and few of his rivals have dared to attack him. A recent poll by the New York Times/Siena showed that 71% of Republican primary voters believe the party should support Trump in his legal battles, and the same amount believe he did not commit serious crimes.
However, some Republicans are still hopeful that Trump’s legal problems will eventually weigh him down and benefit his opponents. The Club for Growth, an influential conservative group opposed to a Trump second term, recently launched two ads in Iowa tapping into those sentiments.
Trump’s legal and political strategies are closely intertwined, with his campaign fundraising increasing after the first two indictments. Though it’s unclear how much the third and fourth cases have boosted his fundraising, they will certainly increase his legal costs. Trump’s opponents have also tried to capitalize on the situation. After the third indictment, former vice-president Mike Pence’s campaign sold merchandise branded with the phrase “Too Honest.”
Trump’s media exposure has soared as he has used both social media and traditional news outlets to express his outrage at the criminal charges. This has allowed him to dominate the airwaves and online discussions, overshadowing his Republican rivals. Google searches for Trump have spiked after every indictment, and he has made spectacles out of his court appearances, delivering angry speeches and attracting the attention of cable news channels.
While Trump’s legal troubles have boosted his standing in the Republican primary race, Americans’ overall views of him have not shifted significantly. He remains more popular than after the January 6 Capitol riots, but only slightly. Trump’s popularity has only marginally worsened since the first indictment in late March. About 40% of Americans have a favorable opinion of him, while 56% have an unfavorable opinion, according to FiveThirtyEight.
For Republicans, the concern is that Trump’s presence may drag down the party in the upcoming elections, as it did in 2018, 2020, and 2022, when moderate and independent voters were put off by the former president’s positions, style, and preferred candidates. However, many Democrats have long believed that Trump would be easier for Biden to defeat in a general election rematch than a new or younger Republican candidate.
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