The Impact of Josh Jacobs’ New Deal on his Fantasy Football Value

The Las Vegas Raiders have reached an agreement with running back Josh Jacobs for an enhanced one-year contract valued at up to $12 million. Jacobs, who led the Raiders in touches last season with 393, averaged an impressive 19.3 fantasy points per game, surpassing expectations based on his average draft position. He accounted for 33% of the Raiders’ total scrimmage yards in the previous season, with only Derrick Henry surpassing his contribution among all NFL running backs.

While it remains uncertain if Jacobs will continue with the Raiders beyond 2023, this is a concern primarily for fantasy managers in dynasty leagues. However, for those participating in redraft leagues, the question arises: should Jacobs be a priority? Our draft trends currently position the 25-year-old as the RB8, making him an intriguing choice in the second and third rounds. Notably, Jacobs has managed to play 15 or more games in each of the past three seasons.

With the arrival of Jimmy Garoppolo as the Raiders’ quarterback, concerns arise due to his injury history. Additionally, the team has lost the services of Darren Waller, who now plays for the Giants. Furthermore, the offensive line remains unimproved, and the Raiders possess one of the weakest defenses in the league. These factors may result in Jacobs facing more frequently stacked defensive formations and being exposed to negative game flow scenarios, ultimately limiting his potential in fantasy football.

Many managers recognize the impact of a running back’s age and workload on their future performance. Jacobs finds himself in rare company, as only four running backs since 2006 have recorded over 330 rushing attempts and 50 receptions in a season. The other three players on this list are Steven Jackson (2006), LaDainian Tomlinson (2006), and DeMarco Murray (2014). Significantly, all three experienced a decline in fantasy production the following year. Jackson’s fantasy points per game dropped by 10.0, Tomlinson’s by 7.0, and Murray’s by 10.0. Given this historical trend and Jacobs’ current situation, it would be unwise to expect a repeat of last year’s fantasy output. Setting realistic expectations is crucial when considering Jacobs in your draft strategy, and I would not recommend reaching for him.

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