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This is a crucial time as it is the last summer break before the European parliament elections next June. Unfinished policy matters will soon be overshadowed by election campaigns. The performance of party groups in the European elections will impact the composition of the next commission and the political battles to be fought over the next five years.
August is a time when politicians in Europe take a break, similar to hibernation in animals. It is a period of low activity in Brussels and European capitals, allowing politicians to recharge for the upcoming busy political year.
The European parliament elections in June 2023 are approaching, leaving little time for unfinished policies as election campaigns take the spotlight. Various political groupings and their member parties are already strategizing to gain maximum advantage.
The results of the European elections will determine the composition of the next commission and the power dynamics within the policymaking landscape for the next five years. We are already starting to see some potential consequences. For example, the center-right is exploring alliances with the nationalist right, positioning themselves as a sensible counterforce to what some voters perceive as a rapid and expensive green industrial transition. Additionally, the gains made by the Greens in the previous elections may be reversed.
In addition to the European parliament elections, several national elections will also have a significant impact on EU policymaking. Slovakia will elect its new parliament in September, followed by Poland in October and the Netherlands in November. These national elections play a crucial role in shaping the composition of the council, where crucial policy compromises are made.
Changes in the political landscape of national governments can significantly impact EU policymaking. Sweden and Finland have already replaced center-left coalitions with center-right ones in the past year. The recent inconclusive Spanish election may also lead to a similar transition or another election.
Individual countries can also hold significant importance in specific policy areas. Poland’s election, for example, will revolve around the country’s relationship with Europe, the rule of law, and liberalism. Slovakia’s stance against Russia is also crucial within the bloc.
Furthermore, the Netherlands, which traditionally has a strong influence, is facing uncertainty after the departure of Mark Rutte, one of Europe’s long-serving national leaders.
Take, for instance, the reform of EU rules on public finances. The compromise approach taken by the Netherlands and Spain last year set the framework for negotiations, but the key decision-makers involved may change by the time the talks conclude.
It is evident that these elections hold great significance for the direction of Europe. While the complexity of overlapping electoral cycles can complicate policy outcomes, the European Union has made efforts to address concerns about democratic deficit. Increasing voter turnout in European elections indicates growing engagement, and democracy operates through the council, supported by active participation in national ballots.
One common objection is the lack of a unified European identity, or “demos,” which some argue hampers sufficient democracy in the EU. However, it is essential to contemplate how democratic decision-making can realistically occur in many countries. In this context, the EU’s structure provides a recognizable framework for democratic processes.
So take advantage of the August break, and get ready to embrace the vibrant and complex nature of cross-border democracy.
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