The cycle of climate disasters and the rise of the extreme right reinforces each other, causing increased suffering for millions of displaced individuals. If we don’t intervene soon, this destructive cycle will become the prevailing narrative of our time.
A recent study published in the scientific journal Nature highlights the concept of the “human climate niche,” which refers to the specific range of temperature and rainfall conditions that support human societies. However, many regions where human flourishing is possible are experiencing a shrinking climate niche. As a result of global heating, approximately 600 million people already find themselves in inhospitable conditions. If current global policies continue, we can expect a heating increase of around 2.7°C by 2100. This trajectory could leave around 2 billion individuals outside the human climate niche by 2030 and 3.7 billion by 2090. Conversely, if governments limit heating to the agreed-upon goal of 1.5°C, the number of people exposed to extreme heat would decrease fivefold. Nevertheless, if climate policies are abandoned and heating reaches 4.4°C, an astonishing 5.3 billion people could face dangerous to impossible conditions by the end of the century. It is important to note that these figures do not account for the additional displacement caused by rising sea levels.
The conditions resulting from extreme heat, such as heat shock, water stress, crop failure, and the spread of infectious diseases, are already causing disruption, morbidity, and death. In the Persian Gulf, weather stations have recorded wetbulb measurements beyond the threshold that most humans can survive. Other regions, such as the Red Sea, the Gulf of Oman, the Gulf of Mexico, the Gulf of California, and parts of South Asia, are also experiencing dangerously high temperatures. Furthermore, a lack of extreme heat monitoring in large parts of Africa means that heat-related deaths often go unregistered.
Countries such as India, Nigeria, Indonesia, the Philippines, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Papua New Guinea, Sudan, Niger, Burkina Faso, Mali, and Central America face an extreme risk due to climate change. Moreover, countries like Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Haiti, and Myanmar will continue to be hammered by severe weather events, including floods, cyclones, and hurricanes. As a result, many people will be forced to relocate or face the possibility of death.
In the developed world, we still have the opportunity to limit the damage caused by environmental destruction, for which we bear the primary responsibility. However, these choices are being systematically and deliberately suppressed. Influential figures, often backed by billionaires and commercial entities, frame any attempts to reduce our environmental impact as a conspiracy to compromise our freedoms. Every proposed change, no matter how minor, is met with a wave of outrage from influencers who claim that our liberties are under threat. Consequently, essential topics like SUVs, meat consumption, and air travel have become increasingly difficult to discuss calmly and rationally.
Climate science denial, which was on the decline for a time, has made a strong resurgence. Environmental scientists and campaigners face attacks that range from baseless accusations to defamatory language. Any effort to address the effects of our consumption, such as the influx of refugees seeking refuge from climate-related crises, is met with claims that we are being “flooded” or “sucked dry” by these individuals. Such rhetoric resonates with fascist ideologies.
As governments shift towards the far right, they dismantle policies aimed at curbing climate change. This is not surprising, as hard-right and far-right politics serve as protective measures for the economic interests of oligarchs. Texas legislators, for example, are actively undermining renewable energy, while a proposed law in Ohio forbids universities from teaching climate policies as anything more than a “controversial belief.” This systematic suppression of climate action is detrimental to our ability to respond to environmental crises.
Florida serves as an example of the destructive consequences that can arise from this cycle. Despite being highly susceptible to climate disasters, including rising sea levels and hurricanes, Florida’s political leaders, such as Governor Ron DeSantis, deny the reality of climate change. Not only has DeSantis called climate science the “politicization of the weather” on national television, but he has also passed laws that force cities to continue relying on fossil fuels. His tax reductions, including the elimination of the disaster preparedness sales tax, weaken Florida’s ability to respond to environmental emergencies. It is clear that the far right benefits from catastrophe and can gain support even amidst these crises.
If we allow this cycle to intensify, we can expect a future where refugees face even greater hostility and mistreatment. Displaced people are already being pushed back into the sea at Europe’s borders and subjected to imprisonment, assault, and scapegoating by far-right factions. European nations pay off governments in other countries to prevent refugees from reaching their borders. In places like Libya, Turkey, and Sudan, refugees face kidnapping, enslavement, torture, rape, and murder. As walls are erected and violence against these desperate individuals escalates, far-right movements gain popularity by blaming refugees for the problems caused by austerity, inequality, and the influence of money in politics. This manufactured hatred has already led to the rise of far-right movements in countries like Italy, Sweden, and Hungary, and it threatens the prospect of similar movements gaining power in Spain, Austria, France, and Germany. In each case, success for these factions will result in a reduction of climate policies, prompting more people to seek refuge in the diminishing regions where the human climate niche still exists — often in the very nations responsible for their displacement.
Fascism is easily fuelled by political ignorance and manipulation. Combating it requires an ongoing effort, but it is crucial if we hope to prevent both the collapse of Earth systems and the rise of the far right. We are left with no choice but to confront both these destructive forces simultaneously.
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