Russia today is like a Potemkin hegemon —- a phantom political power desperate to conceal its decline.
Once the unchallenged leader of both the South Caucasus and the entire former Soviet Union, Russia is now a struggling bit character seeking relevance after its failures in Ukraine.
These failures have not only diminished Russia’s influence across the region, but have also created an opportunity for the United States and the West to establish themselves in Moscow’s backyard.
While grappling with issues in Ukraine, Russia is also working to maintain its authoritarian orbit.
However, cracks are emerging, particularly in the form of budding democracies that are indirectly challenging Moscow’s autocratic dominance over its former Soviet satellites.
Russia’s war against Georgia in 2008, its invasions of Ukraine, and its collaboration with Azerbaijan to attack Armenia are all part of a pattern: Each nation experienced democratic revolutions that ousted pro-Russian autocrats.
In response to these provocations, Russia has waged war — directly or through proxies — against these pro-Western states.
The instability in the South Caucasus, demonstrated by Azerbaijan’s current offensive against Armenia, further exposes Russia’s collapse as a regional overlord.
In fact, Russia’s poor performance in Ukraine has significantly weakened its ability to dictate developments along its borders.
Now, Moscow is collaborating with Azerbaijan to dismantle Armenian sovereignty in an attempt to secure a much-needed victory.
The ongoing conflict has resulted in hundreds of deaths and thousands of displacements, with Azerbaijan regaining control over the contested Nagorno-Karabakh region and occupying territories within Armenia itself.
Similar to its situation in Ukraine, Russia has been unable to fully contain Armenia, a small democracy with a population of 2.9 million, illustrating Moscow’s newfound paralysis.
In order to avoid further humiliation, Russia has allied itself with Azerbaijan to maintain a sense of regional authoritarianism amidst its failures in Ukraine.
Russian-backed Azerbaijani forces are not only expelling ethnic Armenians, but they are also targeting democracy itself.
The rationale behind these actions is clear: by attacking and destabilizing emerging democracies, Russia can undermine democratization itself and prevent the United States and the West from gaining a foothold in the region.
The consequences of this strategy have been devastating, resulting in destruction and loss of life in both Ukraine and Armenia.
Furthermore, Azerbaijan, a country rich in oil and natural gas but ruled by the same autocratic family for decades, is clearly taking cues from Moscow.
Just as Russia has absorbed eastern territories in Ukraine, Azerbaijan has absorbed eastern territories of Armenia. They both use revisionist historical claims to justify their aggression and violate the sovereignty and borders of their neighbor nations. Russia has committed massacres in Bucha and elsewhere, while Azerbaijan is killing civilians in the contested territories of Nagorno-Karabakh.
While the United States and the West have shown unequivocal support for Ukraine, they have not extended the same level of support to Armenia.
In fact, to appease the oil-rich dictator of Baku, both Washington and Brussels have tolerated the egregiousness of Aliyev’s actions beyond the limits of international humanitarian law.
Even more concerning, the Biden Administration seems to be turning a blind eye to the peril faced by vital American interests, including the pursuit of democracy, as the crisis unfolds.
As Azerbaijan engages in what many are already calling an ethnic cleansing of the 120,000 Armenians living in Nagorno-Karabakh, Biden remains silent and inactive.
Nevertheless, the United States has significant potential in the region, particularly in Armenia.
While Russia continues to struggle in Ukraine, the South Caucasus presents an opportunity for the US to strengthen its presence.
Despite growing isolationism at home, the US has clear strategic interests in the region, such as promoting Western-style law and order and securing a Russian exit from Ukraine and other areas.
As casualties continue to rise in the Caucasus, the US must support and protect democracy in Armenia and the region from expansionist aggressors like Russia and Azerbaijan.
Russia, growing weaker by the day due to its struggles in Ukraine, will now rely even more heavily on nations like Azerbaijan (as well as Belarus) to preserve its diminishing command.
In order to counter Russia’s ambitions, America and the rest of the West must first neutralize Azerbaijani aggression.
Nerses Kopalyan is an associate professor-in-residence of political science at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas
Denial of responsibility! Vigour Times is an automatic aggregator of Global media. In each content, the hyperlink to the primary source is specified. All trademarks belong to their rightful owners, and all materials to their authors. For any complaint, please reach us at – [email protected]. We will take necessary action within 24 hours.
