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It has been a decade since Barack Obama failed to enforce his “red line” on the use of chemical weapons in Syria. However, it was a US president, Donald Trump, who ultimately took action by launching cruise missiles at Bashar al-Assad’s air force for a matter of principle.
As governments worldwide attempt to anticipate the foreign policies of a potential second Trump administration, predicting the future may be as challenging as forecasting the weather at a specific time on a particular day many years from now. Trump is known for his egoism, a force in politics that can be both insular (“screw the world”) and outwardly aggressive (“the world must feel our strength”). Therefore, any predictions about his potential actions if reelected are fraught with uncertainty. Nonetheless, certain possibilities seem likely.
If Trump is reelected, the US is expected to reduce or relax sanctions against Russia and slow down arms shipments to Ukraine, purportedly in the interest of prioritizing American needs. However, this approach would have the opposite effect. America’s support for Ukraine has significantly enhanced its global influence since the first Gulf war. The world has witnessed how the Pentagon’s contributions can effectively immobilize Ukraine’s highly expensive military. Imagine the impact on countries caught between China and the US when they observe this demonstration of unprecedented power. In other news, Vietnam recently upgraded its relations with the US.
The challenge lies in the fact that nationalists often struggle to accurately assess the national interest. Consequently, Trump and his congressional supporters may abandon Ukraine. Additionally, Trump is likely to intensify his previous threats against America’s international treaties. In terms of security, this includes undermining NATO and the bilateral agreements with South Korea and Japan. Although these agreements rely on confidence, casting doubt on US commitment, rather than a complete withdrawal, would still cause irreparable damage. Regarding the World Trade Organization, it is a natural target for Trump’s economic policies. Previous attempts to undermine it in 2018 had minimal impact, but with age and the constitutional limitation on a third term, Trump would have greater freedom to act unrestrained.
In other areas, expect more continuities than radical changes. Joe Biden has not significantly deviated from Trump’s positions on protectionism, Iran, or the withdrawal from Afghanistan. Even his initial ethical distance from Saudi Arabia has transformed into a more transactional approach reminiscent of his predecessor’s policies.
However, one Trump policy may take the world by surprise, and it happens to be the most significant one. Trump is well-positioned to alleviate tensions in US-China relations. While it is true that he initially adopted a hostile stance towards China, subsequent escalation beyond economic issues to encompass grand strategy (such as influence over the Asian region) and political philosophy (the comparison between democracy and autocracy) has been driven by other factors, including Mike Pompeo, Biden, and the changing thoughts of the US politico-business elite. Therefore, if Trump feels respected in terms of trade, he may not necessarily seek to “contain” China. Taiwan offers a clear illustration of this point. Biden has been the most assertive in suggesting that America would directly defend Taiwan, whereas Trump, even recently, remains ambiguous on this issue (and curiously fond of his former counterpart, Xi Jinping).
Washington’s concern is not just about Taiwan itself but the fear that if the US fails to intervene, it will erode confidence in the American empire among its allies worldwide. However, what if the president views the empire as a folly? What if he resents the cost of maintaining US garrisons in Asia? Trump’s perspective on Taiwan is centered on business, as he believes that the US lost out on semiconductor production. Supporters and critics alike often misconstrue his banal, dollars-and-cents worldview as a grand vision.
Some speculate that Trump’s attitude towards China became more adversarial due to the pandemic. Additionally, his lack of attention may result in his failure to assert control over an executive branch that houses dedicated China hawks. Nevertheless, the world is prepared for a prolonged superpower rift. It is a potential second Trump term that could defy expectations, except for this crucial aspect.
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