Sweden’s Covid strategy seems justified

During the initial stages of the pandemic, Germany was hailed as a model for effectively handling Covid. Angela Merkel, the then-chancellor, received praise for her scientific background and Germany’s advanced testing infrastructure.

In contrast, Sweden was viewed as a rebellious nation. Its public health officials decided against implementing a complete lockdown and instead relied on voluntary behavioral changes. They argued that it would take years to determine which approach to Covid was the correct one, and it would be more prudent to avoid untested measures. They also considered the adverse effects of lockdown, such as missed cancer diagnoses, cancelled hospital appointments, and disrupted education.

Recent data from the World Health Organisation (WHO) suggests that Sweden’s approach may have been justified. The WHO estimates that the true death toll from the pandemic is nearly 15 million, with some countries underreporting their figures. The WHO used excess deaths as a measure, which accounts for the number of additional deaths beyond what would normally be expected, including deaths resulting from limited access to healthcare for other conditions. The global average excess death rate in 2020 and 2021 was 96 per 100,000 people. Comparatively, the UK’s figure was 109, Spain’s was 111, and Germany’s was 116.

In contrast, Sweden had only 56 excess deaths per 100,000 people. Should those who previously criticized Sweden’s leadership for their reckless irresponsibility offer an apology? At the very least, this research should prompt the UK’s Covid inquiry to investigate whether more lives could have been saved if a compulsory lockdown had not been enforced.

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