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The explosive launch of OpenAI’s ChatGPT in November 2022 has sparked a surge of interest in artificial intelligence (AI) conversations. As we explore the potential implications of advanced AI applications, the impact on employment takes center stage.
In July, two major reports on AI job displacement were published. On July 11, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development revealed that “27% of jobs are in occupations at high risk of automation.”
Later that month, Pew Research reported a similar finding: “In 2022, 19% of American workers were in jobs that are highly susceptible to AI, where the most crucial activities may be replaced or assisted by AI.”
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That’s why, in our second annual poll on Americans’ perspectives on the future, we inquired about their views on AI and its impact on jobs.
Americans believed that AI was most likely to negatively impact journalism and customer service compared to other occupations. (iStock)
Overall, our poll unveiled that Americans recognize the significance of AI, with 48% considering it crucial to America’s future economic success.
Regarding the potential job displacement caused by AI, it turns out that Americans are confident AI won’t take their own jobs but are concerned about its impact on other people’s employment.
First, we asked if Americans were worried about AI generally displacing jobs. The response options were “very worried,” “somewhat worried,” and “not worried at all.” Only one-fifth of Americans weren’t worried at all. Majority of Americans expressed varying degrees of concern: four out of five were at least somewhat worried to very worried. A little over one-fifth of Americans were very worried.
Next, we asked Americans if they were worried about AI displacing their own jobs. Surprisingly, three out of five Americans were “not worried at all.” Only one in ten Americans were “very worried.” This poll included a representative sample of the entire American population.
In fact, this finding closely aligns with a survey conducted as part of a separate research project by the Center for Growth and Opportunity on the future of work. That research also utilized a survey to gauge Americans’ attitudes toward technology and its impact on work, specifically asking if they believed their job would exist 30 years from now. Three out of four Americans responded affirmatively, stating that their job would still exist in 30 years.
Automation and robotics, which can sometimes be categorized as AI but not always, have long been known to displace workers in repetitive tasks like automobile assembly. However, it’s not all negative news. In 2020, my coauthor Erica Jednyak and I pointed out that these displacements often lead to lower costs and higher quality goods for Americans.
The emergence of ChatGPT and generative AI has exposed a whole new range of creative and intellectual jobs to potential displacement, similar to how more repetitive tasks have been affected. According to the aforementioned Pew research, the top three job categories with the highest “exposure” to AI fall into the following sectors: professional, scientific and technical services; finance, insurance, and real estate; and public administration.
That’s why we asked respondents for their thoughts on whether AI would “help” or “hurt” those employed in specific industries including law, medical, engineering, journalism, customer service, academia, publishing, management, K-12 education, manufacturing, and transportation.
Out of all these job categories, Americans believed that journalism and customer service were most likely to be negatively impacted by AI compared to other jobs.
These numbers reveal a few things about how Americans perceive this new technology. The fact that most Americans are not worried about AI taking away their own jobs possibly reflects their intimate understanding of their own occupations. When discussing “jobs out there” or “in general,” it can be an ambiguous concept that overlooks the complexities involved even in seemingly simple jobs.
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For example, long-haul trucking has long been viewed as threatened by autonomous trucks operated by AI, yet companies and researchers continue to encounter new complexities on the road that require human input. Full replacement has proven elusive and is likely to remain so for many years.
This trend mirrors the historical adoption of new technologies. Fears of job displacement by new technologies have persisted throughout human history. However, history also demonstrates that while some jobs are lost, even more jobs are created or existing jobs become more productive. Americans seem to grasp this concept.
This finding could also indicate a blindspot in awareness of AI capabilities. All workers in all fields should be aware of the potential uses and applications of AI in their respective industries. As history has shown thus far with AI tools, complete displacement is unlikely; rather, augmentation and integration of AI into existing jobs is the more probable outcome.
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With generative AI tools like ChatGPT, it is no longer repetitive and predictable tasks that could be displaced or altered, but imaginative and creative tasks like writing and analysis. Our poll can provide valuable insights for policymakers and journalists covering AI, as it shows that the American people hold nuanced views on this exciting technology. These two groups can utilize their platforms to offer thoughtful analysis and information as we all continue to explore the implications of AI in our economy.
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