Surging Abortion Rates in the U.S. Revealed by 2023 Data, State-by-State Analysis Uncovered.

According to new estimates from the Guttmacher Institute, legal abortions in the United States most likely increased in the first six months of 2023 compared to 2020. This increase is attributed to patients traveling from states with bans on abortion to states with more permissive laws, as well as the expansion of access to abortion pills through telemedicine.

The Guttmacher report provides a comprehensive look at legal abortions since the Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision last year, which allowed several states to ban or restrict the procedure. The data suggests that many women have crossed state lines to seek abortions in response to restrictions in their home states. It also indicates a rise in abortions among residents of states where the procedure is legal.

Caitlin Myers, an economist at Middlebury College, explains that there are two factors at play. On one hand, people in states with bans are trapped, while on the other hand, people in many other parts of the country have seen improved access to abortion.

In the first six months of 2023, an estimated 511,000 abortions occurred in areas where the procedure was legal, compared to about 465,000 abortions nationwide during a six-month period in 2020. While abortions increased in almost every state where it remains legal, the largest increase was seen in states bordering those with total abortion bans. These states have relaxed abortion laws and opened new clinics to accommodate patients from neighboring states.

For example, in Illinois, where abortion is legal, abortions rose by an estimated 69% in 2023 compared to 2020. Other states such as Colorado, Kansas, New Mexico, and South Carolina, which also have restrictive neighbors, witnessed increases in the estimated number of abortions.

In contrast, Arizona, Georgia, and Indiana sought to restrict abortion and experienced drops in abortion estimates. Arizona and Georgia have gestational limits on the procedure, while Indiana recently implemented a total ban.

Although the rise in abortions in 2023 may suggest that state bans have not had a significant impact on access, researchers emphasize that travel to obtain abortion comes at a cost, and not all individuals can leave their state to access the procedure. The report does not include estimates of women who were denied abortions or who were unable to obtain them. It is also possible that the increase in abortions may have been even higher if not for the bans.

The Guttmacher Institute’s report is based on data from physical abortion clinics, telehealth providers, and virtual providers. The report does not capture abortions obtained outside of the formal healthcare system, such as through abortion pills ordered online from other countries or states where abortion is legal.

Large and populous states like California, Florida, Illinois, and New York recorded the highest number of abortions. The data includes a range of uncertainty in the counts due to the statistical model used, with more uncertainty in states with more abortion providers. The report did not collect data from the 14 states with abortion bans in effect during the first part of 2023.

The data reflects the period from January to June 2023, comparing it to the same six-month period in 2020. It is important to note that the 2020 data was the last year before major abortion restrictions were implemented, and abortions were already rising at that time, reversing a long-term decline.

Researchers caution that more research is needed to assess the impact of abortion restrictions and the increase in access to abortion pills through telehealth and underground networks. The landscape is expected to change later this year as more restrictions are put into effect. The data collected by Guttmacher does not cover the impact of bans and restrictions enacted in Indiana, North Carolina, and South Carolina, as it was collected before those actions were taken.

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