Recent research reveals that the extreme temperatures experienced in the Southwestern United States, southern Europe, and northern Mexico during the beginning of the month were highly unlikely without the influence of human-caused climate change. The study, conducted by World Weather Attribution, an international group of scientists, focuses on the impact of climate change on extreme weather events. Heatwaves that affected hundreds of millions of people in North America, Europe, and Asia were found to be 50 times more likely due to climate change.
In the United States, cities like Phoenix experienced temperatures exceeding 110 degrees Fahrenheit for more than 20 consecutive days. Similarly, southern European regions also saw triple-digit temperatures, breaking previous records. In China, a remote township in Xinjiang recorded a scorching temperature of 126 degrees, setting a national record. Without the influence of climate change, such extreme heat events would either not occur at all or be extremely rare.
According to Friederike Otto, a senior lecturer in climate science at Imperial College London and co-founder of World Weather Attribution, heatwaves of this magnitude are no longer rare occurrences in a climate affected by fossil fuel emissions. Statistical analysis reveals that prior to the industrial revolution, heatwaves of this intensity would have been virtually impossible. In China, for example, a heatwave of this magnitude would only happen once every 250 years. However, due to continued human activities and greenhouse gas emissions, the chances of extreme heat events are increasing. Even if we cease emitting greenhouse gases, temperatures will not cool down, they will only stop rising.
As Europe faced rising temperatures, Greece witnessed devastating wildfires, resulting in the largest evacuations in the country’s history. The extreme heat made firefighting efforts more challenging, emphasizing the link between climate change and more frequent and intense wildfires in the Mediterranean. According to a recent study, reducing greenhouse gas emissions and adapting cities and critical infrastructure to extreme heat is crucial.
Although several local and national governments in Europe have implemented heat action plans, the human cost of extreme temperatures remains high. Last summer alone, approximately 61,000 people across Europe lost their lives due to heatwaves. The death toll from this month’s heatwave is yet to be determined, but Mexico has already reported over 100 heat-related deaths this summer.
The findings of the World Weather Attribution’s heatwave study, though not peer-reviewed, are based on standardized methods published in 2020. The group utilizes numerous climate models to compare real-world temperatures with projected temperatures in a world without human-caused climate change. Andrew Pershing, vice president for science at Climate Central, affirms the methodology’s standardization in the field and emphasizes the shocking nature of the current extreme heat in a historical context.
According to analysis by the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service, the first two weeks of July were likely the hottest on record. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicts more unusually hot temperatures across the United States in August.
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