Scientists have made a chilling prediction about the future of humanity on Earth. A new study conducted in Canada suggests that if global warming reaches or exceeds 3.6°F (2°C) by 2100, one billion people – equivalent to one eighth of the global population – will die as a result of climate change. The majority of these deaths will be among the poorer population in developing countries, while the individuals responsible for the mass fatalities are likely to be executives at large oil and gas companies. The disasters that will trigger these deaths are expected to include flooding from melted ice, wildfires, diseases, droughts, and extreme weather events. In response to these findings, the study authors are urgently calling on governments and policymakers worldwide to ban the use of fossil fuels, such as coal and gas, which release significant amounts of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. They are advocating for a complete transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources, including wind, solar, geothermal, and hydropower.
Dr Joshua M. Pearce, the lead researcher from the University of Western Ontario, Canada, stated that this projected loss of one billion lives is comparable to involuntary or negligent manslaughter and stressed that such a scenario is morally unacceptable. He emphasized the urgency for immediate action, stating that global warming is a matter of life or death for a billion people. The call for action is based on the belief that every human life holds value, regardless of age, cultural background, gender, or financial resources. The release of greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane, when burning fossil fuels contributes to climate change. These gases trap heat in the atmosphere, leading to the melting of ice in polar regions and subsequent rising sea levels and severe flooding. Coastal regions, which will be permanently submerged first, are considered the most vulnerable to rising sea levels. Additionally, climate change impacts, such as heatwaves, have already caused thousands of deaths worldwide.
Furthermore, the study highlights various causes of death resulting from climate change, including heatwaves, crop failures, droughts, flooding, extreme weather events, and wildfires. These factors can exacerbate global hunger and starvation. The study, conducted by Dr Pearce and Richard Parncutt from the University of Graz, Austria, involved a comprehensive review of over 180 scientific articles. Their analysis indicates that the ‘1,000-ton rule’ – which suggests that one premature death occurs for every approximately 1,000 tons of fossil carbon burned – is a reliable measure to predict human mortality due to climate change. However, they acknowledge that the actual number of deaths may range from a tenth of a person to 10 people per 1,000 tons of emitted carbon.
Dr Pearce predicts that mainly wealthier individuals will bear responsibility for the deaths of one billion predominantly poorer people over the next century. He explains that those with average incomes in developed countries will have better means to ensure their survival, such as moving to safer locations or outbidding the poor for resources like food and the ability to afford air conditioning. To avoid this catastrophic scenario, the researchers propose immediate action, including a complete replacement of fossil fuels with renewable energy sources. They also advocate for the development of technologies that capture and store carbon dioxide (CO2). Dr Pearce argues that even countries heavily reliant on fossil fuels, such as India, can transition to renewable energy sources, pointing out that solar power is now cost-competitive and presents a wise economic investment.
In conclusion, the study warns of the potential death toll of one billion people due to climate change by 2100 if global warming is not curbed. It calls for urgent action to eliminate the use of fossil fuels and replace them with renewable energy sources. The implications of this research are significant, not only in terms of human lives lost but also in emphasizing the moral responsibility to protect and preserve every individual’s well-being, regardless of their background or resources. It is crucial for governments, policymakers, and society as a whole to prioritize the transition to a sustainable and clean energy future in order to prevent this devastating outcome.
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