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The author of ‘Spain: The Trials and Triumphs of a Modern European Country’
In the past, Spain stood out for not having a hard-right populist party like those commonly found in western Europe. This was attributed to the lingering memories of Francisco Franco’s dictatorship, which deterred voters from embracing extremism. However, the emergence of Vox, a hard-right nationalist party, indicates a shift in the political landscape of Spain. With the upcoming snap election called by Socialist premier Pedro Sánchez for July 23, Vox is poised to enter the government. Although the conservative People’s Party is expected to win the majority of votes, they may still rely on Vox to secure a parliamentary majority.
This rise of Vox can be attributed to various factors that reflect trends seen in other European countries. Following Spain’s transition to democracy after Franco, the country experienced three decades of economic growth and political stability, with the Socialists and the PP dominating the political scene. However, the 2008 burst of the property bubble resulted in an economic downturn and a series of challenges including austerity, corruption, political polarization, fragmentation, and the rise of populism. Podemos, a hard-left party, emerged from the anti-austerity movement known as the “indignados,” while Catalan nationalism transformed into separatism as a reaction to austerity measures.
Vox’s breakthrough can be largely attributed to the exceptional factor of the Catalan regional government’s unconstitutional bid for secession in 2017. This event instilled fear in many Spaniards that their country could disintegrate. However, Sánchez has managed to alleviate tensions surrounding the Catalan conflict by pardoning jailed separatist leaders.
Currently, Vox capitalizes on the fear of uncontrolled immigration and engages in a culture war to promote traditional values in a country that has transitioned rapidly from Catholic conservatism to become a socially liberal nation. Vox’s election manifesto calls for recentralization of education, health, and policing, which are predominantly managed by regional authorities, as well as the repeal of laws related to violence against women, abortion, and euthanasia.
Despite Vox’s efforts, the majority of Spaniards do not share their ideology, which cherishes traditional Spanish masculinity, nor do they deny climate change in a country experiencing scorching heat and drought. Polls indicate that Vox’s support may be limited to around 15% of the vote, with projections suggesting they will win fewer than the 52 seats they secured in the November 2019 election. However, given the absence of a majority government in Spain since 2015, Vox sees an opportunity in the uncertain landscape of coalition politics.
Sánchez formed Spain’s first coalition government since the 1930s by allying with Podemos and receiving parliamentary support from hardline Basque and Catalan nationalists. This arrangement, previously criticized as a “Frankenstein” government by the former Socialist leader, has managed to function for three years. During this time, Sánchez successfully navigated Spain through the pandemic and economic recovery, implementing measures such as raising the minimum wage, strengthening the welfare state, and enacting labor reforms to combat temporary contract abuse.
Nevertheless, Sánchez’s perspective shifted to the left last year, apparently rattled by the recovery of the People’s Party under new leader Alberto Núñez Feijóo. He swiftly passed controversial laws on “democratic memory,” sexual consent, and rights pertaining to transgender individuals and animals. In order to appease Catalan separatists, he also approved changes to the penal code and engaged in favors with EH Bildu, a successor party to the Basque separatist organization ETA. Despite this, Bildu has yet to provide a full apology for ETA’s history of terrorism.
The dissatisfaction of moderate voters was evident in the local elections held in May, where the Socialists and their far-left allies lost control of six regions they were defending. Sánchez’s decision to call for a national election five months earlier than scheduled was a calculated move to divert the People’s Party’s attention towards negotiations with Vox in forming regional administrations. While the Socialists have managed to regain some ground in the polls, the timing of a late July election, when many Spaniards are on holiday, appears desperate. Consequently, a political deadlock and a repeat of past elections in 2015-16 and 2019 are possible outcomes. Although a surprise landslide victory for the People’s Party cannot be ruled out, a coalition government between the People’s Party and Vox remains the most likely scenario.
Spain possesses numerous strengths, including a tolerant society, excellent communication systems, and the potential for economic growth. However, polarized politics has its drawbacks, such as regulatory uncertainty and a partially paralyzed judiciary system. Nevertheless, the two main parties are expected to secure around 60% of the vote. In the best interest of Spanish democracy, they should strive to collaborate once again.
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