C
ovid-19 has once again captured the attention of the news cycle. As autumn approaches, disease rates are rising in the community, and the emergence of the Omicron subvariant, EG.5, which the World Health Organization considers a variant of interest, has sparked concern among those who remember past winters. A sense of deja vu is undeniable. So, how concerned should we be?
The WHO is monitoring the global spread of EG.5 but reports that the risk to public health remains low. Currently, there is no indication of increased severity of infection or higher hospitalization rates with this new strain. For individuals who experienced asymptomatic or mild cases of the disease, the ongoing discussion of Covid-19 may seem irrelevant or fear-inducing. However, for those suffering from long Covid, individuals with compromised immune systems, or those who lost loved ones during the pandemic, any increase in the prevalence of the disease is undoubtedly distressing. These individuals know firsthand the devastating effects of Covid.
As someone who has closely followed the pandemic since its inception, my primary message regarding the current situation is that Covid-19 in 2023 is not the same as Covid-19 in 2020. In late July, hospital admissions for the disease in England were only 1.97 per 100,000 people, compared to over 36 per 100,000 in January 2021. Today, we have effective and safe vaccines that provide protection against severe illness and death in the vast majority of cases. Additionally, there is considerable immunity within the population due to a combination of vaccination and previous infections. Healthcare professionals also have a better understanding of how to manage this disease. While there has been less progress in helping those with long Covid, ongoing research is underway to understand the underlying biology and develop treatments to assist patients.
Covid-19 is now one of the top 10 public health issues (and still a significant cause of death in many countries), but it is no longer the top priority. It has joined the existing list of respiratory diseases like flu and RSV that we deal with every winter, along with chronic health problems such as heart disease, lung diseases, stroke, cancer, dementia, and Alzheimer’s. Therefore, new variants will inevitably emerge, leading to a seasonal rise in cases. However, the advice for managing these variants remains the same: get vaccinated, seek treatment if infected, and use masks and tests to help reduce transmission.
In the UK, only individuals over 65 years old are eligible for a Covid booster this winter, which is disappointing. From a public health perspective, it would make sense to offer vaccines at cost to younger individuals and employers who want to privately pay for them and protect themselves, similar to seasonal flu or chickenpox vaccines. The Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI) and the UK Health Security Agency have acknowledged this. Private boosters would reduce sick leave from work and mitigate the long-term health effects of Covid, such as diabetes. Importantly, they would also alleviate winter pressures on the already burdened NHS and ensure the health and productivity of its invaluable staff. The same applies to individuals working in various sectors, including education, manufacturing, or hospitality.
Living life always involves a certain level of risk, whether it’s driving on a motorway or boarding a crowded train during flu season. However, it is crucial that we remain level-headed as new subvariants continue to emerge and mutate in the coming weeks and months. As news reports of infections increase, we must remember that we are no longer in a Covid emergency but rather in a phase of management. The distinction between crisis and non-crisis needs to be clearly conveyed in public messaging. Crying wolf too many times carries the risk of minimizing the seriousness of a truly novel threat, such as sustained human-to-human transmission of avian flu, when it does arise.
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