After his unsuccessful attack on Kyiv last year, Vladimir Putin has changed his approach. Unable to achieve his goals through military means, he has shifted to a prolonged attrition strategy, believing that Russia’s support for the war will eventually wear down the resolve of Ukraine’s Western allies. Putin argued that resistance was futile and that Russia would continue pursuing its objectives until Ukraine collapsed from exhaustion. However, recent events have shown that it is Putin himself who is becoming weary.
Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of a mercenary group turned military force, has openly rebelled against Putin, shattering the perception of the Kremlin strongman’s invincibility. Prigozhin’s forces have occupied Rostov-on-Don, the headquarters of Russia’s military operations in Ukraine, and have been advancing towards Moscow. It is reported that Putin made a deal to avoid their approach to the capital. This turn of events should serve as a moment of reflection for the West.
It is understandable that Putin would want to portray an image of invincibility, but it is inexplicable that many in the West have unquestioningly accepted this narrative. The Biden administration, for over a year, has bought into Putin’s belief that Russia cannot be defeated in Ukraine. However, Prigozhin’s rebellion exposes the fallacy of this thinking. The turmoil in Russia also presents an opportunity.
Prigozhin’s decision to call off the coup attempt before reaching Moscow grants an opening for the US to break free from Putin’s influence and take the offensive. The current situation in Russia favors action. The chaos unfolding in the country will boost Ukraine’s military and undermine Russian morale. Russia will be consumed by internal conflicts for the foreseeable future, inevitably leading to violence. If Ukraine is properly supported, it can achieve significant progress on the battlefield.
Instead of seeking a negotiated settlement that maintains a military stalemate, the Biden administration should seize this opportunity. The US should view the uncertainty in Russia as a chance to support Ukraine. Following the recent international donor conference in London, the Biden team should announce a strong commitment to Ukraine’s future membership in NATO. This commitment should be accompanied by a multi-year military assistance package that includes immediate provision of advanced weaponry and tools.
Prigozhin’s challenge to Putin is ongoing, and regardless of the outcome, the chances of reconciliation between the US and Russia are low. Rather than waiting for another leader like Gorbachev to emerge in the Kremlin, the US should focus on achievable goals: a victorious Ukraine firmly aligned with the West, contributing to peace and prosperity in Eastern Europe. It is time to leave Russia to its own devices.
Peter Rough, a senior fellow and director of the Center on Europe and Eurasia at Hudson Institute, expresses these views.
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