In times of confusion, it is often comforting to rely on cliches. Winston Churchill famously described Russia as “a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma,” capturing the sentiment felt by many Russia analysts in light of the recent failed armed rebellion led by Wagner commander Yevgeny Prigozhin. While answers may be elusive, there are some important elements to consider when trying to make sense of the situation.
There are compelling arguments that Vladimir Putin has been weakened by Prigozhin’s rebellion. For the first time in 23 years, many Russians woke up on Saturday morning questioning whether their president was still in control. However, this perception changed when charges against Prigozhin were dropped and his armed men, accused of shooting down a transport plane and multiple helicopters, were given security guarantees. This indicates that Putin had to make concessions to Prigozhin. In a country where criticizing the army can lead to imprisonment, this incident has blatantly highlighted the stark divide between the rich and powerful and ordinary citizens.
Putin’s unwritten agreement with the Russian people has been shattered. In exchange for democratic freedoms, he promised stability and security. In a democracy, such a breach would spell political death. However, Russia is not a democracy nor a fully functioning state. The only way to comprehend recent events is to view them as a feud between criminal gangs, where each mafia boss holds significant leverage over the other. Prigozhin’s survival suggests that he possesses damaging information and is protected by unseen allies. For now, it is safer for Putin to let him live.
In the lead-up to Wagner’s rebellion, Prigozhin criticized the defense establishment but spared Putin. After Putin expressed support for the military in a national address, Prigozhin no longer held back. This suggests that Prigozhin expected political backing from the top and was unsure of Putin’s allegiance until the last minute. Ultimately, Prigozhin’s rebellion failed to rally support from politicians or top army officials. While it is a defeat for Prigozhin, it exposed any traitors within Putin’s inner circle. In this sense, Putin emerges stronger in the short term.
However, Putin will face two challenges if he wants to consolidate this minor victory. In a dictatorship disguising itself as a democracy, the fractures within the regime revealed by the rebellion must be addressed through tighter repression and control of the media. A rise in patriotic fervor and the blame placed on foreign scapegoats would neatly wrap up this situation. Additionally, managing the approximately 25,000 Wagner fighters and 32,000 demobilized ex-Wagner troops under Prigozhin’s influence will be crucial. These individuals, some of whom are armed and have criminal backgrounds, pose a threat to social order unless controlled through fear or violence. The future appears grim.
While Wagner posters are being torn down in Russia, Prigozhin’s survival suggests he still has a role to play. In Belarus, he will be out of Putin’s way but strategically positioned. The deal between Prigozhin and Putin likely did not involve Alexander Lukashenko, the Belarusian dictator. Russian sources suggest that Aleksey Dyumin, the governor of Tula oblast, and Nikolai Patrushev, head of the Russian security council, were the primary negotiators. Dyumin, seen as a potential successor to Putin, is a former bodyguard known for his loyalty, youth, and fresh perspective.
Presumably, Lukashenko willingly carried out his role as the frontman for the negotiations, protecting both Putin and his protege from association with Prigozhin. If Prigozhin ends up in Belarus, he could potentially draw Belarusian men into the war without requiring the regular army’s involvement. This possibility could create a Wagner-like group based in Minsk, recruiting convicts or coercing Belarusian men to fight. While this force may not make significant advances into Ukraine, it would force the Ukrainians to reinforce their northern border, diverting resources from other areas.
Had Prigozhin’s rebellion succeeded, it would have benefited Ukraine in the short term. However, it is now likely that a humiliated yet revitalized Putin will launch more intense attacks. Regardless of the outcome, Ukraine will require increased support from the West as Russia teeters between chaos and absolute dictatorship.
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