The failed rebellion orchestrated by the mercenary group, Wagner, and its leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, against Russia may have been aborted, but the gravity of the situation remains: we are on the precipice of a nuclear catastrophe. Prigozhin made numerous errors in his coup attempt in June, but his gravest mistake was marching on Moscow. Instead, he should have targeted Russia’s stockpile of nuclear weapons and seized warheads. When a tyrant is on the verge of collapse, those around him often become vultures, providing an opportunity for power-seekers to exploit their vulnerability. The nuclear weapons in Russia, as well as other countries with similar arsenals, are protected by a small security detail from the Ministry of Interior, which aims to prevent terrorist groups from seizing control. However, defending against a large invading force like the Wagner group would require the deployment of regular army units. This presents a significant challenge for Putin, as not only does he have an army unwilling to fight the Ukrainians, but also internal enemies within his regime. In fact, Putin’s power has diminished because the military, a key pillar of Kremlin rule, has become apathetic in its support. Transforming this army and gaining its support will be an impossible mission. Additionally, time is not on Putin’s side, as thousands of disgruntled ex-convicts, former Wagner fighters with extensive combat experience, will soon be roaming Russia, ready to offer their services to those aspiring for power. As mentioned before, the Russian Army is unlikely to fulfill its duties. This increases the possibility of a nuclear conflict in Russia, which would cause catastrophic collateral damage worldwide. Ironically, the person best equipped to prevent this nuclear holocaust is Vladimir Putin himself. All he needs to do is restore democratic rule in Russia. A democratically elected Russian government, ruling by consensus, would serve as the most reliable guardian of the 6,000 nuclear warheads in Russia’s arsenal. This government would easily gain the support of the Russian military and other sectors. The prerequisite for democratization in Russia is bringing an end to the war in Ukraine. The Russian Army units’ indifference towards the Wagner takeover of Rostov-on-Don and the cheering by civilians clearly indicate widespread disdain for this conflict. Throughout history, Europe witnessed a wave of democratization during the 18th and 19th centuries, as most monarchs relinquished their powers to popularly elected parliaments. Russian tsars had multiple chances to do the same during the uprisings in 1892, 1905, and 1917, but they were too stubborn and ignorant to recognize the lessons of history. Putin should have learned from Russian history the fate that befalls tyrants who cling to power. Despite ample opportunities to avoid the same fate, Tsar Nicholas II and his family met a violent end during the 1917 revolution. Putin’s goal of resurrecting the defunct Soviet Union and its superpower status through his military endeavors in Ukraine has only revealed Russia as a third-rate power. In contrast, Mikhail Gorbachev, whom Putin constantly criticized, at least managed to salvage an intact Russia from the collapse of the Soviet Union. Putin, however, risks dividing Russia into multiple smaller nations. Dictators rarely admit their mistakes. Nevertheless, Western leaders have an opportunity to convince Putin that restoring democratic rule in Russia and promoting world peace will ultimately save his own life. The West can offer carrots like lifting the debilitating sanctions imposed on Russia. It is worth attempting to save humanity.
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