However, the situation quickly escalated into a problem. Mr. Prigozhin, who was enjoying a surge in popularity, started to personally attack and insult Mr. Shoigu. Surprisingly, Mr. Putin did not intervene or mediate the situation, even though he arranged a meeting between the two men in February. According to a source in the presidential administration, Mr. Putin did not address the issue specifically during the conversation, hoping that the meeting itself would serve as a sufficient warning to stop the public attacks. Unfortunately, Mr. Prigozhin did not take the hint and continued to launch verbal attacks against the military commanders.
In the following weeks, Mr. Prigozhin traveled across the country, behaving like a politician running an election campaign. He met with potential supporters and criticized the war effort. Surprisingly, the Kremlin was aware of his plans but chose to take no action. As Mr. Prigozhin’s popularity grew, he even managed to recruit a former deputy defense minister as a deputy commander for Wagner, which clearly indicated that he had influential admirers within the security forces. Throughout all this, Mr. Putin remained silent and distant. Sources close to him have revealed that he has not met with Mr. Prigozhin for months.
This silence from Mr. Putin played a crucial role. In early June, when Mr. Shoigu attempted to control private militias like Wagner by making mercenaries sign contracts with the army, Mr. Prigozhin was unable to communicate with the president to express his objections. In the realm of Russian bureaucracy, this lack of access signifies the highest level of disfavor. A source close to the president informed me that Mr. Putin could have easily prevented the uprising if he had simply spoken to Mr. Prigozhin or instructed someone in the administration to do so. Instead, without any means to reach the Kremlin and fearing the loss of his autonomy, Mr. Prigozhin embarked on his ill-fated rebellion.
The consequences were immediate. For Mr. Prigozhin, driven by pride and anger, this likely marks the end of his political and military career. If only he had exercised patience and waited until perhaps the fall to launch a rebellion, while building a stronger support base within the security apparatus, the outcome could have been very different. Regrettably, after a deal arranged by President Alexander Lukashenko of Belarus, a longtime acquaintance of Mr. Prigozhin, the Wagner chief is now in Belarus. There are reports of him considering exile in the Central African Republic, where the Wagner group has a military base.
The situation for Mr. Putin is equally grave. While he has tried to project control in his recent comments, it is clear that much more will be required to erase the memory of the revolt. Despite Mr. Putin’s promises to pardon those involved in the rebellion, it is likely that the so-called patriotic camp, which includes hard-liners who largely support Mr. Prigozhin and operate on the Telegram social messaging app, will face repression. It has now become evident that this right-wing, fascist faction is just as dangerous as the liberals persecuted by the Kremlin, especially considering their armed supporters. A purge can be expected, starting with General Sergei Surovikin, a former commander of Russian forces in Ukraine who allegedly had knowledge of the mutiny in advance.
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