Are Democrats Sacrificing the 2024 Election? Critics claim that Donald Trump cannot win the next election within the Republican Party. To put this hypothesis to the test, several strong candidates are running as alternatives to Trump, including Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, former Vice President Mike Pence, Sen. Tim Scott, former Govs. Nikki Haley and Chris Christie. These candidates have the opportunity to persuade voters that they can perform better. Currently, polls indicate that Republicans are remaining loyal to Trump and that Trump has a fair chance of defeating Biden. While Trump may trail in some national surveys, the same occurred in 2016 and 2020, where national polls underestimated Trump’s support. Democrats cannot take solace in the narrow lead that some polls show Biden having, as not every poll reflects this. For instance, a recent Harvard-Harris survey found Trump leading by six points. Recent polls show that Republicans are sticking with Trump for the 2024 election.
However, unlike how Republicans are testing Trump’s viability, Democrats are allowing Biden to secure the nomination unchallenged. Although he has two primary challengers, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Marianne Williamson, these candidates are not taken seriously by most media outlets and have little support from Democratic officials. Biden refuses to debate Kennedy or Williamson, so voters won’t get the chance to see how he performs on a stage outside of his control until it is too late for second thoughts. According to an Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research poll in April, only 47% of Democrats wanted Biden to seek re-election. If Democrats themselves lack enthusiasm for Biden, it raises doubts about their ability to convince independent voters to support him. Their hope lies in “negative partisanship,” where voters don’t need to like Biden as long as they dislike the Republican candidate more. Democrats are familiar with running anti-Trump campaigns and will adapt this strategy to characterize any other Republican nominee as similar to Trump. Whether it is DeSantis or Pence, Democrats will paint them as Trump-like figures. However, it is important to note that Donald Trump is no longer in the White House, and according to political science, presidential elections are referendums on the current incumbent and his party. Thus, voters will judge Biden’s record and fitness for another term in office, regardless of their feelings towards the Republican Party or Trump. Around one-third of registered voters, according to a CNN/SSRS poll, do not want either Biden or Trump in office. On Election Day, most Americans feel compelled to vote against the candidate they dislike more, resulting in third-party efforts usually amounting to nothing. However, even a small number of voters choosing a third-party or independent candidate in the battleground states of 2024 could sway the outcome. Incidentally, Biden already faces competition from Cornel West seeking the Green Party’s nomination. The Green Party had a presence on the ballot in several states in previous elections, and they are set to be on the ballot in crucial states like Michigan and Wisconsin. These states played a pivotal role in Trump’s victory in 2016 and switched to Biden in 2020. Biden won Wisconsin by a slim margin, making it a tossup state for him even without West in the picture. Democrats are well aware of the challenges they face, including the lack of enthusiasm. Trump and DeSantis have passionate supporters within the GOP, while Biden does not inspire the same level of dedication in Democrats. It is worth noting that incumbent presidents who face serious primary challengers often lose, along with their party. Despite Biden’s weaknesses, Democrats believe he would fare even worse if he had to compete in a primary, and any opponent who defeated him would still be tied to his legacy. Moreover, if Biden were to lose, it could improve the chances for congressional Democrats in the 2026 midterms, as these elections tend to be difficult for the incumbent party. Democrats chose Biden as a familiar face in a year marked by impeachment, COVID, and riots. They sacrificed the future by relying on the past, which worked in their favor at the time. However, the future is now catching up to them. While Democrats do not want to lose in 2024, they have to play the hand they have dealt themselves.
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