NATO summits are known for their dramatic beginnings and heartwarming endings captured in a family photo. However, this time, the drama was settled even before the summit began.
Leading up to the summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, all eyes were on Ukraine’s potential membership. Yet, Sweden’s bid for membership was also uncertain, as Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan had put it on hold.
Erdogan saw Vilnius as his opportunity to extract significant concessions from the West. Surprisingly, the breakthrough on Swedish membership came earlier than expected. President Biden and his team worked tirelessly behind the scenes to persuade Erdogan to agree, despite his undemocratic record. Their commendable efforts acknowledged the urgency of competing with China and Russia in the global geopolitical landscape.
In the days leading up to the summit, Erdogan forced the West to address his demands, disregarding NATO’s usual language on alliance unity. He met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and proclaimed Ukraine’s suitability for NATO membership. However, he also stated that Sweden was not ready yet, citing the need for more action against terrorism. This referred to Sweden allowing PKK supporters to hold protests in Stockholm. Erdogan further urged the alliance to send a clear message about Turkey’s EU membership bid, which is unlikely to materialize.
Behind the public show, Erdogan’s primary request has always been clear: purchasing F-16s from the United States. In 2017, Turkey’s decision to purchase S-400 missile systems from Russia resulted in US sanctions. Now, with the urgent need to modernize its air force fleet, Turkey has formally requested to buy new F-16s and upgrade its existing inventory of 80 planes.
The Biden administration has been supportive of the transaction, but Congress has been blocking it due to concerns about Turkey’s democratic setbacks and aggressive behavior towards neighboring countries like Greece. However, over the weekend, the White House made progress in convincing congressional leaders, including Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Robert Menendez, that keeping Turkey within NATO is essential by proceeding with the sale. Erdogan thanked Biden for his efforts, and it is likely that assurances were made regarding the eventual delivery of the F-16s.
Erdogan may have also obtained concessions from Europe. As part of the announcement, Sweden agreed to support the expansion of the EU’s free-trade arrangement with Turkey. With lobbying from Washington, other EU members are reportedly open to negotiations.
This presents an important opportunity to reverse Turkey’s drift and improve relations. Erdogan’s solidarity with Ukraine showcased his potential as a critical partner for Europe. He signed defense and reconstruction deals with Zelensky and facilitated the repatriation of Ukrainian military commanders held in Istanbul as part of a prisoner exchange with Russia. This move angered the Kremlin.
Erdogan recognizes that his geopolitical balancing act has alienated Europe, Turkey’s largest export market. His alignment with Russian President Vladimir Putin misjudged the unified support of NATO countries for Ukraine and the extent of Europe’s concerns over Russian aggression. As a pragmatist, Erdogan understands that Turkey needs better relations with the West, particularly in the face of an unstable Russia and a struggling economy.
At the Vilnius summit, Erdogan will be hailed as a statesman and will seek to explore additional agreements. However, the window of opportunity for improved relations with NATO and the West will not remain open indefinitely. Turkey must be willing to address domestic issues, such as making substantive changes to its anti-terror law to meet the demand for EU visa liberalization for Turkish citizens. Europeans should also cautiously consider what Erdogan might be willing to negotiate.
The Swedish deal potentially opens doors for Turkey to align itself further on Ukraine and counter Russian influence in Syria and the Black Sea. This achievement reflects positively on the Biden administration. Biden and Erdogan are scheduled to meet in Vilnius, and there might be an invitation for Erdogan to visit the White House later this year. With strategic maneuvering from both Turkey and the West, a broader reset in relations may be within reach.
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