Understanding the Impact of a Government Shutdown

As a small minority of Republican House extremists continue to thwart any compromise on federal spending, it is important to understand the two ways in which the country faces a government shutdown. There is the possible cessation of certain federal functions, such as service to visitors at national parks, coupled with furloughs of “non-essential” government staff and possibly delayed paychecks for civilian and military personnel. And then there is the shutdown of government as a process through which elected representatives make decisions rationally in the public interest.

Of the two, the former might actually be the least dangerous. We do not minimize the impact on federal employees and their families, much less members of the public who rely on them for services such as immigration courts or air traffic control. Among the first to feel the pinch from suspended funding, if Congress fails to authorize at least temporary spending by Oct. 1, could be some 7 million low-income clients of the Women, Infants and Children program, which helps pay for more than half of all infant formula consumed in the United States.

The Impact on Essential Services

Yet spending on Social Security and Medicare will continue; critical national security operations, Amtrak and the Postal Service will be unaffected. The damage, to those directly affected and to the wider U.S. economy, of a two- or three-day shutdown, for which there is ample precedent, would be modest. All concerned will take a more substantial hit if the impasse stretches to 34 days, as occurred in the all-time worst shutdown under President Donald Trump between December 2018 and January 2019. Even those losses, though, could mostly be made whole.

The Threat to the Legislative Process

The Republican conference’s shutdown of the legislative process, however, threatens harm of a different nature, less tangible but, for all that, possibly more lasting. Just 16 percent of the public trusts the federal government to do the right thing all or most of the time, according to a newly released Pew Research survey – near an all-time low. How many times can the legislative process take this kind of abuse, at the hands of a small minority, before its legitimacy evaporates even further?

It would be one thing if the faction within Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s (R-Calif.) 221-member majority were taking a stand on a clear, consistent principle or some finite set of demands. Instead, their reasons for blocking the bipartisan compromise spending plan that both houses of Congress and the president had already agreed to months ago seem to shift by the day. Some of their goals – such as thwarting aid to Ukraine, among other spending cuts, at least relate to a policy, however misguided. Much obstruction, though, seems to be about nothing more than campaign fundraising or personal feuds with Mr. McCarthy.

The Dangers of Repeated Shutdowns

As pointless as this show may be, it is even more cynical. For all their professed anti-government zeal, the GOP ultras would never threaten a shutdown if it meant Army bases would close and Social Security checks would bounce. They’re free-riding, politically, on the fact that so much of the government continues to operate even when it’s ostensibly “shut down.” Hence an additional risk of repeated shutdowns: They distort the public’s sense of what the federal government does and how much it really affects their lives.