The EG.5 variant of COVID-19 is causing increasing concern. This month, it became the dominant strain in the United States, and the World Health Organization classified it as a “variant of interest,” meaning it has genetic changes that give it an advantage in spreading and its prevalence is on the rise. So, how much should we be worried?
While severe illness in older adults and those with underlying health conditions is always a concern, as is persistent COVID in anyone who gets infected, experts say that EG.5 does not pose a major threat, or at least not greater than any other circulating variant of interest.
“It’s a growing concern, but it doesn’t seem to be very different from what has been circulating in the United States over the past three or four months,” said Andrew Pekosz, professor of Molecular Microbiology and Immunology at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. “So I think that mitigates my concerns about this variant at this time.”
Even the WHO declared in an announcement that, based on available evidence, “the risk posed by EG.5 to public health is low worldwide.”
The variant was identified in China in February and first detected in the United States in April. It is a descendant of the XBB.1.9.2 subvariant of Omicron and has a notable mutation that helps it evade antibodies developed by the immune system in response to previous variants and vaccines. This advantage could be the reason why EG.5 has become the dominant strain globally and COVID-19 cases are on the rise again.
That mutation “could mean that more people are susceptible to the virus, as it can better evade immunity,” noted Pekosz.
But EG.5, also known as Eris, does not seem to have any new capabilities in terms of its contagiousness, symptoms, or likelihood of causing severe illness. Diagnostic tests and treatments like Paxlovid remain effective against it, according to Pekosz.
Eric Topol, executive vice president of Scripps Research in La Jolla, California, said he was not too concerned about this variant; however, he added that he would feel even better if the new vaccine formula were already available, with distribution expected in the fall. The updated booster shot was developed based on another variant with a genetic similarity to EG.5. It is expected to provide better protection than last year’s vaccine, which targeted the original coronavirus strain and one of the early Omicron variants, which is very different from the most recent version.
“My main concern is for high-risk individuals,” said Topol. “The vaccines that were administered are far removed from where the virus is currently and where it is heading.”
Experts are more afraid of other emerging variants that have the same mutation as EG.5, which evades immune defenses, along with another mutation that makes the virus more transmissible. Scientists have dubbed the combination of these mutations “FLip,” as it “flips” the positions of two amino acids labeled with the letters F and L. While these FLip variants make up a small proportion of current COVID-19 cases, they could trigger a larger increase in infections in the coming months.
“In general, I am very concerned about the pace of SARS-CoV-2 evolution,” said Trevor Bedford, a professor in the Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center. “No single variant has caused much havoc, but the overall accumulation of these mutations is having a significant impact.”
Another new variant that scientists are closely monitoring is BA.2.86. Descendant from a different Omicron variant, BA.2.86 has been linked to seven confirmed cases of COVID worldwide, but experts suspect it may be more widespread.
Scientists are particularly concerned about this variant due to the number of mutations it carries. Many of these mutations are located in the spike protein, which the coronavirus uses to infect human cells and which our immune system uses to identify it. According to Jesse Bloom, also a professor at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center specializing in virus evolution, the mutations in BA.2.86 represent “a similar evolutionary leap in size” to the changes from the original coronavirus strain to the first Omicron variant.
Even so, many experts have urged people not to panic. It is still too early to know if vaccines and other preexisting forms of immunity will be ineffective against BA.2.86, or if the variant will be more transmissible or cause more severe illness.
In an email to The New York Times, Bloom wrote: “One possible scenario is that BA.2.86 is less transmissible than current variants and therefore never spreads widely. This is the fate of most new variants of SARS-CoV-2. However, there is also the possibility that the variant will spread widely. We will have to wait for more data to know.”
Dana G. Smith is a journalist for the Well section, where she has written about psychedelic therapy, fitness trends, and COVID-19. Learn more about Dana G. Smith
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