Kim Jong-un, the leader of North Korea, is embarking on a rare trip to Russia to discuss military aid for President Vladimir V. Putin’s Ukraine war effort. This trip presents a unique opportunity for North Korea to receive technical assistance for its weapons programs and establish itself as a valuable ally to an important neighbor.
Unlike its usual negative attention for nuclear and missile tests, North Korea is now stepping into the geopolitical spotlight, drawing closer to Moscow and Beijing while challenging the United States. Although Russia has been a longtime ally of North Korea, strained relations and minimal economic trade have affected their relationship. China has been the primary provider of economic support to North Korea.
The convergence of shared interests and worldviews is bringing North Korea and Russia closer together. The White House has expressed concerns about North Korea’s potential arms deals with Russia and the transfer of artillery shells and rockets. Western officials’ reports of Kim Jong-un’s upcoming visit indicate that this process is progressing with intent.
North Korea faces significant technological and economic obstacles in its nuclear and missile programs, and Russia can offer assistance on both fronts. This partnership is mutually beneficial for both parties involved. However, there is speculation about the extent to which North Korean aid can contribute to Russia’s war efforts, given North Korea’s economic difficulties and food shortages.
A deal with Russia has the potential to escalate tensions in the Korean Peninsula, allowing North Korea to advance its nuclear weapons program and prompting South Korea and Japan to strengthen their military cooperation with the United States. This, in turn, could undermine peace and security in both Europe and Asia and demonstrate the willingness of Moscow and Pyongyang to violate international law.
Kim Jong-un’s visit to Russia marks his first official trip since his armored train visit in 2019. Since assuming power, his goals have been to build a nuclear arsenal and revive his country’s economy. Initially, he prioritized weapons programs and used the growing military threat as leverage to ease sanctions. However, after failed diplomacy with former President Trump, Kim has been searching for a new strategy.
He now sees an opportunity in the changing world order, aligning North Korea with Beijing and Moscow against the United States-dominated “unipolar” world order. This approach has allowed North Korea to conduct missile tests despite UN Security Council resolutions. Both Russia and China have supported North Korea by using their veto power at the Council to block new penalties against the country.
High-ranking officials from Russia and China visited Pyongyang, symbolizing their deepening ties. The military parade commemorating the end of the Korean War showcased the trilateral alliance between North Korea, China, and Russia. Kim Jong-un aimed to counter the partnership among the United States, Japan, and South Korea by strengthening this three-way alliance.
During his visit, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu proposed joint military drills with North Korea and China to counter trilateral military cooperation in the region. Additionally, Kim and Putin exchanged letters expressing their desire to expand bilateral cooperation in all fields and build a long-lasting strategic relationship.
While Russia does not provide significant economic aid or trade to North Korea, it possesses crucial technologies that could advance North Korea’s weapons programs. The country still lacks the necessary technology to make its nuclear warheads suitable for intercontinental range. North Korea has also faced difficulties in successfully launching military spy satellites and building a ballistic missile submarine.
Overall, while economic assistance from Russia may be symbolic, North Korea requires technological help to advance its weapons projects, most of which are based on original Russian technology. This trip to Russia represents a significant opportunity for North Korea to address its technological and economic challenges while solidifying its position as a valuable ally in the region.
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