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Recent data from the Hawaii Department of Health suggests that COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations are on the rise again, potentially indicating a late-summer wave.
As of Wednesday, the seven-day daily average for new cases in Hawaii was 115, surpassing triple digits for the first time since mid-May. The average statewide positivity rate was around 12%, a significant increase compared to mid-May.
Hospitalizations have also been increasing, with an average of 76 COVID-19 patients admitted per day, up from 67 the previous week and 56 in mid-July. This trend aligns with national patterns, which have also seen a rise in hospitalizations in recent weeks.
In the United States, more than 8,000 COVID-19 patients were hospitalized in the week ending July 22, a 12% increase compared to the previous week. This marks the second consecutive week of increases after seven months of steady declines, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).
The CDC has reported that various other COVID-19 indicators, including levels in wastewater, test positivity, and emergency department visits, are also increasing across the country. It is worth noting, however, that hospitalizations are still considered to be relatively low and are far below the levels recorded at the same time in 2022. Additionally, weekly deaths are currently at their lowest levels since the beginning of the pandemic.
Despite these trends, the CDC has not made any changes to its current recommendations and guidelines related to COVID-19. It is important to note that the federal public health emergency related to COVID-19 ended on May 11.
In Hawaii, some county positivity rates have exceeded the 5% threshold, with Honolulu County reporting 15% and Maui County reporting 19.5% as of Wednesday.
An infectious disease expert from the East-West Center in Manoa, Tim Brown, stated that cases in Maui County have more than doubled in the past few weeks. He noted that the positivity rate in Maui is skyrocketing and currently stands at 80% of the peak positivity seen during the initial omicron outbreak last winter.
Wastewater analysis from the CDC also indicates a rise in SARS-CoV-2 concentrations in two sewer sheds on Maui, starting in mid-June.
Katelyn Jetelina, a renowned epidemiologist from the University of Texas, stated in her weekly newsletter that “a COVID-19 wave is here.” She emphasizes the importance of repeat testing to rule out false negatives, indoor masking, and the recommendation for individuals over the age of 65 to consider the Paxlovid antiviral treatment if they test positive for COVID-19.
It is worth mentioning that the coronavirus continues to evolve, and various omicron variants from the XBB family are currently competing for dominance in the United States. In Hawaii, the predominant variants are XBB.2.3 and XBB.1.5, according to the Hawaii Department of Health’s latest variant report.
New offshoots of omicron, including the XBB.1.9.2 descendant with an extra spike mutation, known as EG.5, are being closely monitored by epidemiologists. The World Health Organization has included EG.5 in its list of variants under surveillance. However, there is currently no evidence suggesting that it is driving an increase in cases, deaths, or resulting in more severe infections.
Federal authorities are expected to release an updated COVID-19 vaccine in the fall, specifically targeting the XBB strains.
In conclusion, while there is still a significant presence of COVID-19 in the community, it is crucial to remain cautious, especially for those at higher risk or in close proximity to vulnerable individuals. Let’s continue taking necessary precautions to protect ourselves and others.
Lastly, the Hawaii Department of Health reported five additional COVID-19-related deaths, bringing the total death toll in Hawaii to 1,970.
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