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Polls reveal a decline in US support for military aid to Ukraine across political parties.
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The ongoing Israel-Hamas war and the recent appointment of the new GOP speaker of the House may exacerbate the situation.
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In addition, a government shutdown is looming as President Biden requests billions in aid for both Israel and Ukraine from Congress.
This month has brought a series of unfortunate developments for Ukraine unrelated to their battlefield losses. Moreover, there may be more unfavorable outcomes in the near future.
Since Russia invaded in February 2022, Ukraine has heavily relied on Western aid, as the war has lasted longer than expected. The Ukrainian counteroffensive launched in June progressed slower than anticipated, despite the supply of weapons from the West.
By early October, polls showed that the support for arming Ukraine has declined among Americans from both political parties, which is concerning for Kyiv. The situation worsened on October 7, when Hamas initiated a wave of attacks against Israel, triggering swift retaliation and counterstrikes in Gaza.
The Israel-Hamas war has dominated American media coverage, grabbing the attention of many in Washington, DC. This has raised concerns among Ukrainian allies and officials as they fear that resources will be diverted away from their fight.
Nora Bensahel, an expert on US defense policy and military operations, highlighted the potential intensity of focus on Gaza during Israel’s ground invasion, leading to an immense humanitarian crisis. These events are unfolding concurrently with President Biden’s request to Congress for a $105 billion military aid package primarily aimed at Israel and Ukraine. However, its passage remains uncertain, particularly due to the new Republican speaker of the House, Mike Johnson.
The Ukrainians are understandably concerned about Johnson’s track record, as he has been one of the far-right Republicans challenging assistance to Ukraine. Nevertheless, despite some hesitancy among his party members, Johnson has indicated he is open to additional funding for Kyiv.
However, his historical voting record indicates a minority of House Republicans have voted against additional aid. Consequently, the Republicans for Ukraine advocacy group has assigned him an “F” grade in terms of supporting Ukraine.
Although President Biden’s funding request garnered broad support in the Senate this week, its fate in the House, where some Republicans are apprehensive of providing additional aid to Ukraine, is uncertain. In an attempt to appease these members, Johnson introduced a bill to separate $14 billion in aid to Israel from Biden’s comprehensive package.
The other pressing issue for Kyiv is the looming government shutdown on November 17. Last month, lawmakers managed to avert a shutdown by excluding new aid for Ukraine from a spending deal.
With the war persisting, Kyiv may encounter more problems in the future, particularly during the 2024 presidential election. Simon Miles, an assistant professor at Duke University, warns that a Trump presidency could be detrimental to Ukraine, and the conflict may not reach a resolution by then. Consequently, this may lead to a change in the nature of the conflict as Russia utilizes its capabilities to influence the election.
In addition to cutting off aid, the US can impose restrictions on the provision of US-made weapons from European countries’ stocks to Ukraine.
Read the full article on Business Insider.
