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The author, a non-resident scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Eurasia Center in Berlin
Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine last year, Kyiv has faced severe restrictions on its maritime trade. In an attempt to negotiate the lifting of sanctions, Russia initially offered to ease the blockade on Ukrainian ports. However, when its efforts proved unsuccessful, Russia withdrew from a grain deal brokered a year earlier and launched attacks on Ukraine’s ports, specifically targeting its grain export capacity.
In response, Ukraine retaliated by using sea drones to attack Russian vessels in the Black Sea and declaring Russia’s Black Sea ports as “war risk areas”. The objective is to disrupt Russia’s own exports, particularly oil, by pressuring insurance companies and ship owners to halt operations in those routes.
Meanwhile, Ukraine is attempting to end the blockade by welcoming vessels sailing under flags of countries believed to be safe from Russian attacks. One partially German-owned vessel successfully departed from Odesa this week en route to Istanbul.
Presumably, Ukraine hopes that an attack on a NATO member-flagged vessel would be seen as an act of aggression, triggering NATO’s Article 5, which considers an attack on one member as an attack on all members. Such a direct conflict between NATO and Russia is undesirable for Moscow, but Ukraine would welcome NATO’s direct involvement.
This situation bears a resemblance to the “tanker war” that occurred during the Iran-Iraq war from 1984 to 1988. Both sides aimed to disrupt each other’s oil trade by targeting tankers heading to enemy ports, even those sailing under the flags of NATO countries such as the UK and the US. Numerous commercial vessels were damaged, including a US navy frigate.
Back then, despite the risks, there was no shortage of vessels willing to sail to the Gulf for oil. Insurance companies continued to provide coverage, albeit at higher costs. None of the NATO countries whose vessels were attacked invoked Article 5.
In the current conflict, attacking tankers in the Black Sea carries the risk of oil spills and significant ecological damage for all littoral states, including Ukraine. This could make Ukraine think twice about such actions.
However, there is an alternative method to halt exports from Russian Black Sea ports: targeting oil terminals, specifically the ones in the seaport of Novorossiysk. The first terminal, Sheskharis, is situated inside Novorossiysk harbor, making it challenging to attack from the sea.
The second terminal, Yuzhnaya Ozereyevka, operates from moorings several miles out to sea where tankers dock. These are more vulnerable to attack and harder to repair. However, they primarily handle oil exports from Kazakhstan, so attacking them would mainly affect western oil companies operating in Kazakhstan.
If Novorossiysk’s exports come to a halt, Russia would need alternative routes for its oil. Crude oil, which has been experiencing declining export volumes even before Russia started limiting production as part of its agreement with OPEC+, could be redirected to Russia’s Ust-Luga oil port on the Baltic Sea. However, this would result in longer journeys for Russian oil going to India and China and make shipments to Turkey less profitable.
Rerouting exports of Russian oil products would be more challenging. Since the implementation of an EU embargo in February, their primary markets have been Mediterranean and African countries. It would also pose difficulties for Bulgaria and Romania, who were exempted from the embargo due to their dependence on Russian oil.
If Ukraine succeeds in redirecting Russia’s exports via the Baltic Sea, it will not only impose losses on Moscow but also impact its customers, including major developing countries and some of Ukraine’s allies.
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