Donald Trump’s current campaign for the Republican nomination may seem unstoppable, but he is receiving unexpected assistance from President Joe Biden. Contrary to the belief that Biden is the ultimate antidote to Trump, his weaknesses and inadequacies might actually aid Trump’s return to the White House in 2024. Biden’s indictments against Trump, coupled with lackluster poll results, are inadvertently boosting his opponent’s chances.
The indictments serve as a rallying cry for Republicans, with Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg’s shoddy indictment propelling Trump into the primary race. Additionally, special counsel Jack Smith’s federal indictments only strengthen this effect. Moreover, the fact that Biden’s Justice Department is seemingly coddling Hunter Biden while indicting Trump reinforces Trump’s argument that there is a two-tier system of justice working against him.
Furthermore, Biden’s poor performance in office fuels a sense of nostalgia among Republicans for the Trump presidency. This, in turn, benefits Trump’s campaign for restoration. Despite claims by Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and other Republicans that Trump is not electable, Biden’s declining political standing weakens their case. Polls consistently show a competitive race between Trump and Biden, with the RealClearPolitics polling average indicating a narrow lead for Biden and a recent Marquette University survey displaying a tie. Democrats may view this as advantageous, assuming that Trump is the weakest contender for the Republican nomination. However, given the narrow margin of victory in both 2016 and 2020, it is not unrealistic to consider the possibility of another close race.
It is often argued that Trump has not made any efforts to win back swing voters since 2020. While this may be true, Biden, who was projected to be a more moderate politician, has taken actions that have alienated some voters. Democrats treat Biden as an extraordinary political talent, yet he is an 80-year-old man whose primary achievement was defeating an unpopular incumbent during a pandemic with a limited campaign. In his tenth quarter in office, Biden’s approval rating hit a low of 40%, second only to Jimmy Carter among post-World War II presidents at that point. The juxtaposition of two deeply unpopular candidates, Trump and Biden, creates a volatile political landscape, far surpassing the previous Trump-Hillary matchup.
A June CNN poll revealed that 36% of respondents did not view either Trump or Biden favorably, and only about a third held a favorable view of each candidate. This echoes the sentiment of the 2016 election, where Democrats underestimated Trump and nominated a weak candidate, Hillary Clinton, without much internal opposition or scrutiny. Just as Clinton’s email scandal was deemed off-limits, Democrats now avoid discussing Biden’s age and his family’s involvement in influencing peddling.
In conclusion, if Trump chooses to run in 2024, he may face considerable challenges, but he would also have an incumbent, Biden, who is not invincible. The current political climate mirrors that of 2016, with a sense of unpredictability and the potential for surprising outcomes.
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