The upcoming 2024 presidential race is being touted as a rematch between former President Donald Trump and current President Joe Biden by polls, pundits, and politicos. While this may be the case, it’s important to note that summer polls 15 months before the general election have historically held little significance.
For instance, in December 2003, a CBS poll boldly claimed, “Dean pulls away in Dem race,” referring to Howard Dean, who ultimately lost the Democratic nomination to John Kerry. Similarly, in late June 2007, Hillary Clinton maintained a significant lead in the Democratic primary over eventual nominee Barack Obama, according to Gallup. Additionally, Gallup noted in their summer 2007 polls that former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani was the frontrunner on the Republican side, but he ended up dropping out early in the race.
Even as recent as 2015, Jeb Bush was leading Trump in the Republican primary, as highlighted in a summer poll by CNN. However, come January 2016, Wisconsin governor Scott Walker emerged as the favorite, only to lose momentum and fall behind in the Iowa caucuses.
While polls currently indicate a potential Biden vs. Trump faceoff in 2024, it’s important to consider the volatility of this upcoming race. The last time two presidents ran against each other was in 1912, resulting in both losing to a less experienced candidate, Woodrow Wilson. Furthermore, Trump is currently under investigation by state and federal prosecutors, which may instill empathy among Republicans but could also backfire and intensify during the campaign season, favoring a Democratic victory.
However, the left’s use of the legal system as a political weapon is risky, as they cannot accurately predict how their actions will affect Trump’s candidacy or the sentiment of Republican primary voters. There is also mounting evidence suggesting that Biden was involved in his son’s illegal activities, despite Democratic denials. Biden’s physical and cognitive decline is evident, and there are concerns about Vice President Kamala Harris potentially taking over his presidency.
The leaks and rumors surrounding Biden’s legal issues and incapacity are aimed at dissuading him from running in 2024, but they do not seem to have enough legal weight to remove him from office. Additionally, the first Republican primary debate is still a month away, and history has shown that debates can dramatically alter the trajectory of front-runners. It is uncertain whether Trump will choose to debate or if Biden will be able to hold his own against competitors in the general election.
All of these factors combine to create an unpredictable presidential race filled with “known unknowns.” It is crucial to recognize that anyone who confidently predicts the outcome of the primary races or the general election at this stage is being delusional.
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