Iran’s successful Influence Operation: Unveiling the Hidden Outcomes

When news breaks of an email breach, it’s natural to feel sympathetic towards the victims and want to extend our support. Personally, I dread the thought of anyone accessing my emails from a decade ago, as I’m certain there are messages that would strain my relationships with friends, exes, and colleagues. Hand over your email password, and I guarantee I could destroy your career.

This week, we learned that several Americans and Europeans were targeted by the Iranian government, as their emails reveal they were being manipulated to endorse conciliatory policies towards Tehran. Reports from Semafor and Iran International indicate that high-ranking Iranian officials such as Mohammad Javad Zarif identified individuals at think tanks with Iranian backgrounds, organizing meetings with them, and utilizing the group to disseminate messages that benefited Iran. The emails, dating back to 2014, demonstrate that members of this group, known as the “Iran Experts Initiative,” responded to Iran’s outreach in various ways, ranging from cautious engagement to active coordination. The Iranian government even covered expenses related to internal meetings, cultivated relationships with high-ranking officials, and extended invitations for visits to Tehran, boasting about how successfully they maneuvered their experts to propagate the Islamic Republic’s positions.

It’s clear that the Iranian government had every reason to be proud. They handpicked individuals who were willing to curry favor with Tehran over email and publicly echoed their negotiating stances. Some of these individuals ended up in influential positions in the U.S. government due to their connections with Robert Malley, a seasoned expert on the Middle East who served in Democratic administrations. Malley, who led Obama’s teams focusing on the Islamic State, Syria, and Iraq, is known for favoring negotiations with unfriendly governments in the region and disdaining the “maximum pressure” approach adopted by Donald Trump. Earlier this year, Malley had his security clearance revoked for undisclosed reasons and is currently on leave from government service (he did not respond to requests for comment).

What’s truly alarming about these reports is that willing participants in an Iranian influence operation have essentially become colleagues with those who are shaping the Biden administration’s Iran policy, and in some cases, have even held positions in the government and formulated the policy themselves. On Tuesday, President Biden’s State Department spokesperson, Matthew Miller, brushed off the allegations, dismissing them as events that transpired nearly a decade ago and mostly involved individuals who no longer work for the government (presumably referring to the U.S. government). However, these accusations should not be easily dismissed just because they occurred in 2014.

The fact that there are feeble attempts to downplay the significance of these allegations indicates their seriousness. Esfandyar Batmanghelidj, a commentator, suggested that opponents of Tehran were simply smearing the analysts because they “maintained dialogue and exchanged views with Iranian officials.” Batmanghelidj then pointed out the links between Semafor and Qatar, as well as Iran International’s ties to Saudi Arabia, implying that these accusations might be politically motivated. Likewise, journalist Laura Rozen labeled the stories as “McCarthyistic” and targeted blameless analysts, insinuating that they were being unfairly attacked due to their Iranian heritage. By defending the emails as mere “dialogue,” they fail to fully address the allegations, tacitly accepting the authenticity of the emails.

While it’s perfectly acceptable to cultivate relationships with sources, any reputable analyst, journalist, or politician would prefer to be the one initiating the cultivation rather than being cultivated themselves. This exchange of favors and mutual support can erode one’s integrity and independence. It’s precisely why the Iranians engage in this practice; they want to transform influential individuals, who are often intelligent and perceptive, into pawns who will support their political agenda. The concern lies not in Americans of Iranian descent engaging in conversations with Iranian officials, but in the subservient tone exhibited by the Iranian Americans and their apparent lack of concern about being used as tools by the Iranian government. Rozen and Batmanghelidj don’t contest the authenticity of the emails, and their attempts to compare this Iranian influence operation to supposed Qatari and Saudi operations indirectly acknowledges the credibility of the emails.

While it’s perfectly acceptable to cultivate sources, maintaining independence and integrity is of utmost importance for analysts, journalists, and politicians. It’s crucial to ensure that our own views and analyses are not swayed or altered to appease those we engage with. In light of this standard, some of the exchanges reported between the Iran Experts and their convenor are cringe-worthy. After the reports surfaced, Ali Vaez, Malley’s deputy, admitted on X (formerly Twitter) that he had sent a complete draft of an op-ed to the Iranian government, eagerly seeking their comments and feedback. If I were to do the same with a source for a story, I would likely lose my job. (I reached out to The National Interest, where the article was published, to inquire about their policy on sharing drafts, but the editor, Jacob Heilbrunn, did not respond.) While posing questions and fact-checking are commendable practices, sharing an entire draft of an article with a subject, whether for approval or improvement, essentially makes the recipient an unrecognized co-author.

Vaez later pledged to the Iranian foreign minister that he would “help in any way” by suggesting a “public campaign” to promote Iran’s views on its nuclear program. He offered his services “as an Iranian,” driven by his national and patriotic duty. Vaez, like his former boss Malley, has written extensively on Iran and U.S.-Iran relations for various publications, including this one (I was unable to reach Vaez through his employer to verify the authenticity of the emails and their context before publication). According to the reports, Adnan Tabatabai, CEO and founder of the German think tank CARPO, even offered to prepare articles for Iran’s foreign ministry, suggesting that they could work together on an essay that could be published under a former official’s name. The report states that Tabatabai had worked as a contractor for Malley’s International Crisis Group (he did not respond to requests for comment).

Ariane Tabatabai (no relation to Adnan) sought advice from her contact at the Iranian foreign ministry regarding whether she should collaborate with officials in Saudi Arabia or attend a meeting in Israel. In an email to Mostafa Zahrani of the foreign ministry, she asked for his opinion and questioned whether it would be better for her to attend the workshop at Ben-Gurion University instead of someone like Emily Landau from Tel Aviv University. Zahrani advised Tabatabai to explore Saudi Arabia and avoid Israel. Tabatabai thanked him for the guidance and personally visited Tehran in 2014. In another email exchange with the Iranians, she mentioned that she recently published an article advocating for Tehran to have more leeway in uranium enrichment through centrifuges.

Undoubtedly, these emails are troubling and would likely have implications if they were selectively leaked to the public, just like any of our own personal emails would. However, it’s difficult to say whether they would be as damaging as these or if our excuses would be as feeble in comparison.

Vaez attempted to justify sharing his draft as a “courtesy” in response to Iranian officials’ claims that his writing had been overly critical of their position. Even if sharing a draft were permissible, would he extend the same courtesy to officials from the Trump administration? He claimed that the Iran International Crisis Group’s work has always considered the perspectives of every relevant stakeholder. I am confident that if we were to examine his inbox, we would find no complimentary emails addressed to “Your Excellency” Mike Pompeo, offering his devoted and patriotic service. He wouldn’t soften his criticism of Trump officials (whose Iran policy primarily relied on sanctions and drone strikes) by granting them a “courtesy” sneak peek at his next piece…

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