Winning is an unparalleled feeling. Labour’s recent victory in Selby and Ainsty, a previously Conservative stronghold in rural Yorkshire, marks a significant achievement for Keir Starmer. In just over three years, he has transformed a defeated and despondent party into a government in waiting. While there have been difficult compromises along the way, the results are finally starting to show.
Ed Davey’s success in recapturing Somerton and Frome for the Lib Dems is equally deserving of celebration. It confirms that his party has fully recovered and is back from the political wilderness. The high level of tactical voting in both constituencies indicates a growing determination among anti-Tory voters to do whatever it takes. Progressives thrive when they can position themselves as insurgents against an unpopular government. However, the outcome in Uxbridge and South Ruislip reveals the limitations of this approach.
After Boris Johnson’s scandalous departure, many assumed that his former seat was up for grabs by Labour. However, the Tories managed to secure victory by turning the election into a referendum on another incumbent: London’s mayor, Sadiq Khan. The extension of the capital’s ultra-low emission zone to outlying boroughs, which imposed a daily charge on owners of old and polluting vehicles, became the central issue. Labour struggled to effectively communicate the impact of rising living costs, with voters placing blame on the mayor.
Starmer’s suggestion that Khan should “reflect” on the unpopularity of the ultra-low emission zone reveals a deep frustration within the shadow cabinet. Missing out on victory by only a few hundred votes has sparked internal debates within both major parties about the extent to which green policies should be pursued during a time of rising living costs.
The urgency of reducing carbon emissions is more evident than ever, with record heatwaves, wildfires, and melting Antarctic sea ice. Transitioning from fossil fuels to renewables, adopting heat pumps and solar panels, and switching to electric vehicles have become imperative. However, not all households can afford the upfront costs associated with these changes. Politicians who ignore this reality will face backlash.
Addressing the climate emergency requires a non-partisan approach, with all political parties uniting for the national interest. Unfortunately, there is a danger of green policies being weaponized for political gain. Right-wing voices are already urging Rishi Sunak to use Uxbridge as a blueprint for a Conservative fightback, advocating against the planned ban on new petrol and diesel cars and attacking Labour as the political wing of the oil industry. This strategy aims to limit Tory losses while making it harder for a future Labour government to implement their agenda.
Postponing necessary climate interventions, as past Conservative administrations have done, only leads to the need for more drastic measures. Changes that could have been implemented gradually over the past 13 years may now require more abrupt action. However, the Uxbridge result may make Starmer more cautious about some of Ed Miliband’s more radical climate change proposals.
Resolving tensions between staunch environmentalists and their more cautious colleagues in the shadow cabinet is challenging because both sides have valid points. The Miliband camp rightly emphasizes the urgency of the climate emergency and warns against backpedaling, which could open a path for the Green Party to capture Labour’s left-leaning voters. The pragmatists, on the other hand, recognize that middle England is wary of threats to their wallets and lifestyles. In Uxbridge, the Tories successfully portrayed the ultra-low emission zone as a solution imposed by City Hall, distant from the concerns of suburban families and the working class.
Drawing significant conclusions from any byelection is risky, and Labour’s response should not involve a retreat on net zero. Instead, they should focus on getting the economics right, providing more financial assistance to households transitioning to greener options. Equally important is striking the right tone. Sanctimony is counterproductive when people are struggling.
Rishi Sunak should reflect on the legacy he wants to leave behind, much like Theresa May did when she enshrined net zero targets into law during her final weeks in office. Our fragile planet cannot be treated as a political game.
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