How Long Until Keir Starmer’s Prominent Appeal Begins to Diminish?

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Roula Khalaf, Editor of the FT, selects her favourite stories in this weekly newsletter.

The writer is professor of politics at Queen Mary University of London

While there won’t be a UK general election tomorrow, the question of who would win continues to intrigue the political pollsters. If there were an election, it is widely believed that Labour would emerge as the victorious party. However, it is unlikely that the contest will take place for another year.

By that time, this year’s conference season, which has favored the opposition, will be a distant memory. Research studying parties’ “before and after conference” ratings over nearly 70 years suggests that any boost Liverpool might have given Labour will dissipate long before then.

This doesn’t mean Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer shouldn’t be optimistic. The “fundamentals” of voting seem to indicate a Labour victory or, at the very least, a Conservative defeat. Starmer will do everything in his power to lead not only the largest party but also a government with a significant majority. However, this outcome is far from guaranteed.

On the bright side for Labour, sluggish economic growth and the cost of living crisis have brought bread-and-butter issues to the forefront. In this regard, the government’s prospects look bleak.

Labour doesn’t hold an overwhelming advantage on key issues like the economy according to pollsters. However, surveys reveal that approximately three-quarters of voters believe the government is handling these issues poorly. Public sentiment toward the NHS and immigration reflects similar results.

Furthermore, the public’s perception of individual figures is notable. While Starmer’s approval rating is -12, Sunak’s rating is -40. Most voters also view the government as exhausted and at the mercy of events. Additionally, two-thirds see the Tories as divided, while less than one-third say the same of Labour.

Despite these factors, the gap between the values of the UK’s graduate and non-graduate voters, which played a role in the Brexit referendum in 2016 and Boris Johnson’s comfortable victory in 2019, remains. Recent research presented at the conferences by Manchester University professor Rob Ford highlights the ongoing significance of this values divide, which poses a challenge for both Labour and the Tories.

Voters who left school at 16 are more likely to consider immigration a problem and less likely to prioritize Labour’s actions on climate change. They are also more wary of any moves by Starmer to improve Britain’s relationship with the EU. Labour must proceed carefully, especially since these school-leavers make up a significant portion of voters in the small-town constituencies required to secure a majority.

To achieve this, Labour will need a larger swing than Tony Blair achieved in their 1997 victory. Therefore, the party’s relatively lackluster performance in local elections is cause for concern. However, these concerns are countered by Labour’s progress in Scotland and increasing evidence of anti-Tory tactical voting in other regions.

Nevertheless, the fact that support for independence in Scotland remains at 46% suggests that Labour should limit its ambitions to winning only 20-25 Scottish seats in the House of Commons, despite their recent by-election win in Rutherglen and Hamilton West.

While it’s difficult to see how the Conservatives can prevent Starmer from reaching 10 Downing Street, achieving a comfortable or workable majority remains a work in progress.