Former President Donald Trump made an appearance at The Faith and Freedom Coalition’s “Road to Majority” conference in Washington, D.C. on June 24, 2023.
Tasos Katopodis | Reuters
Several Republican candidates vying for the presidency are putting in a lot of effort to secure a spot on the stage for their party’s primary debate next month.
However, the importance of the event may be diminished if their main competitor, former President Donald Trump, decides not to attend.
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Trump has indicated multiple times that he may choose to skip the first debate, which is scheduled for August 23 in Milwaukee. He questions why he should subject himself to a barrage of attacks from his competitors when he already has a significant lead. In a recent interview with Fox News, he stated, “When you have a big lead, you don’t do it.” He has yet to make a final decision.
Saul Anuzis, a Republican strategist and former chair of the Michigan GOP, acknowledges that many people would like Trump to be present at the debate. He believes that if he were a candidate challenging Trump, he would definitely want the opportunity to take shots at him.
Trump’s absence would eliminate that opportunity, but it is unlikely to have an impact on his lead. This highlights his elevated position in the Republican primary and the potential impact it could have on his competitors, especially those who are struggling to raise funds or gain traction in the polls.
Trump pointed out that Ronald Reagan also opted not to participate in a GOP debate in Iowa in 1980. However, Reagan received criticism for his decision and ultimately participated in a later debate in the election cycle. Trump himself skipped a primary debate in 2016, choosing instead to hold a campaign event nearby.
In the interview, Trump stated, “You’re leading people by 50 and 60 points and you say, why would you be doing a debate — it’s actually not fair. Why would you let somebody that’s at zero, or one or two or three, be popping you with questions?”
His decision may be wise considering the national polls consistently show Trump leading his closest competitor, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, by a significant margin. Trump’s loss to President Joe Biden in 2020 and the ongoing legal battles he faces have not seemed to diminish his status as the de facto leader of the Republican Party.
Anuzis commented, “The political reality is that as a candidate who’s so far ahead, it really doesn’t make a whole lot of sense for him to put himself in the firing line.”
DeSantis could also be affected by Trump’s absence, as he would become the main target of the debate. Senator Ted Cruz experienced a similar situation during the 2016 debate that Trump skipped, where he was rated as the loser by GOP insiders in a post-debate poll.
Without Trump, who is known for generating attention and high ratings, it is likely that the debate will attract a smaller audience, which would be disadvantageous for candidates who have few opportunities to break out from the pack.
What about fundraising?
Miami Mayor Francis Suarez, a Republican presidential candidate, delivers remarks at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library on June 15, 2023 in Simi Valley, California.
Mario Tama | Getty Images News | Getty Images
Historically, debates have presented important fundraising opportunities. For example, Biden’s campaign raised nearly $4 million in just one hour after a general election debate against Trump in 2020.
Anuzis stated, “A good debate showing always helps from a fundraising perspective, especially for challengers who are struggling to raise money.”
Some candidates are still striving to qualify for the debate stage. The Republican National Committee requires candidates to have at least 40,000 unique donors and receive at least 1% support in certain national polls.
Former Vice President Mike Pence recently tweeted that his campaign has not yet reached the donor threshold. Former Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson has also indicated that over 5,000 donors have contributed to his campaign.
Lower-polling candidates have offered incentives to boost donor engagement. For example, North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum announced that he would give $20 gift cards to up to 50,000 people who donate at least $1 to his White House bid. Miami Mayor Francis Suarez’s campaign is raffling off tickets to see soccer legend Lionel Messi’s MLS debut.
Some candidates are simply trying to generate excitement for the potential debate showdown. Former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, who has emphasized his debate skills and pledged to take on Trump directly, predicted that Trump’s “ego” would compel him to participate in the debate. Christie stated on ABC News’ “This Week,” “I think he’d be enormously frustrated sitting back in Bedminster and watching what I’m going to do to him on that stage in absentia. Come on, Donald, get on the stage and defend your record.”
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