Virginia students are taking a stand against the reversal of transgender protections. They are protesting the requirement to use restrooms, pronouns, and names based on their school records. This issue has sparked controversy and raised concerns about equality and inclusivity.
Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin is gaining popularity within the national GOP, and there are speculations about his potential presidential bid. However, his success may be hindered if local Democrats achieve the predicted Election Day success in Virginia. The entire Virginia House of Delegates and state Senate are up for election, and the focus for Youngkin and Republicans is on maintaining their House majority and flipping the upper chamber red. Democrats remain cautiously optimistic about their chances in these crucial races.
In August, Youngkin shared that he was cautiously optimistic about Republicans’ odds at the time. He emphasized that his priority lies in the current state races and acknowledged the humbling notion of a potential national role in 2024.
In some of Virginia’s most competitive Senate races, several Democratic candidates pose a challenge to Youngkin’s work in 2023. Danica Roem, a current delegate and Democratic state Senate candidate in northern Virginia, believes her race could be the deciding factor for either party’s majority. Roem’s district is ranked as the 20th-most Democratic district, making her a prime target for Youngkin. Another crucial seat lies west of Roem’s district, where Democrat Russet Perry faces the Youngkin-endorsed Republican Juan Pablo Segura. Perry acknowledges that the fate of the Senate’s control rests on winning his race.
Rebecca Bromley-Trujillo, a professor at Christopher Newport University, and research director at the Wason Center for Civic Leadership, predicts that Democrats have a slight edge in the fight for state Senate majority. She highlights four closely contested races, including the matchup between Virginia Sen. Monty Mason and Republican J.D. “Danny” Diggs. Bromley-Trujillo finds this race particularly intriguing as both candidates attempt to paint each other as extremists while running as moderates.
Mason acknowledges that his district in the state’s southeastern peninsula is a toss-up, and Youngkin targeted it due to its pivotal role in taking control of the state Senate. While Youngkin managed to win the vote in Mason’s area, Democrats frequently secure close victories there.
Youngkin’s popularity in Virginia surpasses that of President Joe Biden. A survey by Roanoke College in August revealed that Biden had a 40% job approval rating among Virginians, whereas Youngkin consistently maintains a rating above 50%. Youngkin’s favorable standing has enabled him to campaign for Republicans in crucial races throughout Virginia.
Regardless of Youngkin’s endorsement, Democrat Joel Griffin, a former Marine who is running against Republican Tara Durant, remains confident heading into Election Day. Griffin acknowledges the competitiveness of his district and believes that the election night results will play a crucial role in guiding the nation to 2024.
The outcome of this election cycle carries significant weight for Youngkin’s potential presidential bid. Success for Republicans in 2023 would boost Youngkin’s national standing and strengthen his case for a late presidential bid. On the other hand, a poor showing from the Virginia GOP could tarnish Youngkin’s promising profile. Although a disappointing outcome would not rule him out as a popular Republican in the state, it would damage his image of being able to appeal to moderates and Democrats.
Democrats outside of Virginia are closely observing the election, recognizing its potential impact on Youngkin’s chances to become the president in 2024. Abhi Rahman, the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee communications director, states that stopping Youngkin in these legislative elections would eliminate any possibility of him becoming president.
The issue of abortion is at the heart of the Virginia 2023 elections. Youngkin has proposed a 15-week abortion limit, with exceptions for rape, incest, and severe medical emergencies, which he considers a compromise. Rahman argues that abortion has become the centerpiece of this year’s state elections. Virginia is the last state in the South that allows access to abortion, and regardless of Republican rhetoric, any ban is still a ban.
Republicans in Virginia have struggled with their abortion messaging since the Supreme Court’s overturning of Roe v. Wade in the summer. GOP candidates in Virginia have adjusted their stance to appeal to a more consensus position, referring to the 15-week proposal as a limit rather than a ban. However, this remains a contentious issue for Republicans. A recent poll by the Wason Center found that only 24% of Virginians want more restrictive abortion laws, while 39% support or strongly support a 15-week ban.
The outcome of next week’s election night results could provide insight into how voters’ preferences on abortion restrictions or access will impact the national elections in 2024. Griffin believes that abortion will continue to be a crucial topic as it touches on reproductive rights and equality under the law.
Abortion has been of extraordinary importance to voters, as indicated by Mario Yedidia, the field director for the UNITE HERE labor union. While canvassing in highly contested districts, Yedidia’s group has observed the significance of this issue. However, he stresses that voters also care deeply about “bread and butter” issues such as the economy and the rising cost of living. Schuyler VanValkenburg, a Democratic state Senate candidate, identifies gun violence, education, housing costs, and abortion as the key concerns in his district. VanValkenburg’s race in a battleground district will have a significant impact on the state Senate’s control and future legislation related to these issues.
Next week’s election in Virginia will not only shape the state’s political landscape but will also send a message to Republicans and Democrats across the country about voters’ positions on crucial issues. It is an opportunity for both parties to gauge the nation’s appetite for abortion restrictions or access, as well as assess the importance of other pressing concerns.
