The writer is the director of the Center on the US and Europe at the Brookings Institution
Germany’s Chancellor Olaf Scholz proudly announced to the world that his country is now a serious and mature nation. Standing alongside his foreign, defense, finance, and interior ministers, Scholz revealed Germany’s first-ever national security strategy, marking a historic moment. While the applause from western capitals may be lackluster, the importance of such strategy papers cannot be denied. They compel governments to identify priorities, allocate resources, and outline their plans to achieve those goals. In times of crisis, a well-crafted strategy can rally citizens around a sense of national purpose.
The United States has required new administrations to produce national strategy documents since 1986. The UK, France, Canada, Japan, and even NATO have published similar documents. Even the European Union developed a strategy in 2003, updated in 2016, spurred by the 9/11 attacks and subsequent events. Thus, it is somewhat perplexing that Germany, being a powerhouse in continental Europe and a G7 member, did not previously have a national security strategy.
Last October, Germany’s Chief of Staff Wolfgang Schmidt stirred controversy in Berlin when he claimed that Germany’s public debates on national security were still in their “teenage years.” While his comments were in response to the discussion on providing tanks to Ukraine, they highlighted a larger issue. Germany’s adolescent phase has lasted far longer than anticipated, considering it regained full sovereignty 34 years ago after reunifying East and West Germany in 1990.
Germany went through the stages of grief during this period of transition. Denial was the initial reaction, with the belief that the fall of the Berlin Wall signified the end of history and validation of reconciliation efforts. Anger arose with the Kosovo conflict in 1999, when German forces fired in combat for the first time since World War II. Bargaining ensued, with Germany primarily resorting to its checkbook diplomacy for foreign policy. However, depression set in when this approach proved ineffective against Russia, China, Iran, and the US under Trump’s administration. Acceptance finally came with Germany’s coalition agreement in 2021, acknowledging the need for transformative change and the drafting of a national security strategy.
The newly unveiled strategy document contains both positive and concerning aspects. It embraces nuclear deterrence, a departure from the traditional stance of Social Democrats and Greens. It also calls for EU enlargement and recognizes the importance of strengthening Germany’s domestic security. However, it falls short on meeting NATO’s defense spending goal, raising questions about Germany’s commitment. Describing Russian imperialism as a threat and China as a systemic rival merely echoes the status quo without addressing potential scenarios of further aggression from Russia, collaboration with China, or a shift in US foreign policy.
Consequently, Europe’s security climate is currently deteriorating, and there is a risk of it plunging into a strategic Ice Age. While a national security council could have been formed to consider unthinkable scenarios, institutional innovations were vetoed by the chancellery. Thus, the responsibility of strategic thinking remains with a governing coalition that has shown signs of instability in recent weeks. Growing up and facing these challenges is undeniably difficult.
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