In a move that could solidify GOP power in North Carolina for years to come, Republicans in the state passed new congressional and state legislative maps on Wednesday. These maps have the potential to flip three or four U.S. House seats to the Republican party and make it easier for them to maintain veto-proof majorities over state legislation. However, critics argue that the maps weaken democracy by limiting the power of Black and Brown voters and creating districts that favor GOP strongholds and suppress Democratic voters.
Eric Holder, the former U.S. attorney general and current head of the National Democratic Redistricting Committee, condemned the maps, stating that North Carolina has become one of the most egregiously gerrymandered states in the country. On the other hand, proponents argue that recent court precedent allows them to draw maps that favor political parties, and that they have the power to do so because they won more seats in both chambers.
This Republican redistricting effort in North Carolina follows similar attempts by the party to redefine congressional voting districts nationwide. Legal challenges to redistricting cases are underway in other Southern states like Alabama and South Carolina. The new maps in North Carolina come almost a year after the state Supreme Court shifted from Democratic to Republican control in the 2022 elections. In April, GOP justices ruled that redistricting for partisan gain was constitutional under state law, overturning a previous ruling by the state’s highest court that had deemed proposed boundaries illegal partisan gerrymandering.
According to statewide election data, the newly-enacted districts consist of 10 likely Republican districts, three likely Democratic districts, and one competitive district. Prior to the new maps, North Carolina’s 14 congressional seats were evenly split between Democrats and Republicans due to a temporary map put in place after the top court’s decision to invalidate a Republican-proposed map. The new maps are expected to flip at least three seats to the GOP, potentially giving them control in the U.S. House where they currently hold a narrow majority.
Experts believe that the three- or four-seat swing resulting from the redistricting is significant, even in the realm of partisan gerrymandering. They argue that the outcome shows how court elections can drastically alter the direction of a state and potentially impact control of the U.S. House. Some experts have also pointed out that the Republican-drawn maps do not reflect voters’ changing preferences and make elections less responsive to voters.
While Republicans have defended their maps as legally compliant and a reversal of Democratic judicial overreach, critics anticipate legal challenges against the redistricting. The opponents argue that the new maps are racially gerrymandered and violate the Voting Rights Act by unfairly hindering Black voters’ ability to elect their representatives. Advocates and organizations in North Carolina have already begun analyzing the maps to identify potential grounds for lawsuits.
Democratic strategist Morgan Jackson suggests that there may be a viable case to challenge the new maps based on dilution of the Black vote, particularly following the U.S. Supreme Court’s ruling that Alabama’s congressional map was unconstitutional due to racial gerrymandering. Jackson also points out that the aggressive gerrymandering in the state will significantly limit Democratic voters’ influence.
The analysis of the maps by various experts in North Carolina indicates that the redistricting is likely to help Republicans maintain majorities, potentially even veto-proof majorities, in both chambers of the state legislature. Furthermore, the redistricting is expected to aid Republicans in their efforts to retain the seat of Rep. Tricia Cotham, who switched from the Democratic Party to the Republican Party earlier this year, giving the GOP a slim supermajority.
It is worth noting that despite Governor Roy Cooper’s opposition, the governor does not have the power to veto the redistricting proposals. Cooper has criticized the maps for their use of race and political party to create historically discriminatory and unfair districts. North Carolina has a diverse population, with Black residents making up over a fifth of the state, according to U.S. Census data.
Republicans claim that they did not use racial demographic data to create the districts, though the process they employed remains unclear. Communications regarding the redistricting among state lawmakers are not subject to freedom of information requests due to a recently passed budget resolution, making it difficult for the public to know what factors were considered in the map-drawing process. While legal challenges to earlier maps in 2022 relied on related communications to prove illegal partisan gerrymandering, it remains to be seen how this limitation on transparency will affect future legal battles.
Overall, the passage of the new congressional and state legislative maps in North Carolina has sparked controversy and criticism, with opponents arguing that it undermines democracy and disproportionately harms marginalized communities. Legal challenges are expected, and the outcome of these battles could have significant implications for the balance of power in the state and potentially impact control of the U.S. House.
