A recent survey conducted by the New York Times and Siena College sheds light on the challenges faced by Kevin McCarthy in resisting pressure to support Donald Trump. A significant number of probable GOP primary voters strongly believe in Trump’s innocence, largely due to the influence of Fox News and right-wing media.
The key finding of the poll is that Trump enjoys significant support among these voters, far surpassing Florida governor Ron DeSantis. However, the survey reveals more:
• 71% of these voters do not believe Trump committed serious federal crimes.
• 75% believe that Trump was simply exercising his right to contest the outcome of the 2020 election, rather than attempting to overturn it.
• 71% believe that Republicans should stand by Trump.
These views appear to be heavily influenced by the media consumed by these voters. Large majorities of those who rely on Fox News as their primary news source hold these beliefs, while a significant percentage of those who rely on mainstream news sources do not:
• 91% of Fox News viewers do not believe Trump committed serious crimes. Only 5% think he did. Among those who rely on mainstream sources, the numbers are 52% and 38% respectively.
• 83% of Fox News viewers believe Trump was exercising his right to contest the 2020 election outcome, while only 12% believe he threatened American democracy. Among those who rely on mainstream news, the numbers are 58% and 37%.
• 85% of Fox News viewers believe Republicans must support Trump, compared to only 9% who disagree. Among those who rely on mainstream sources, those numbers are 49% and 46%.
The poll also reveals that over 40% of these GOP primary voters rely on Fox News or other right-wing media sources for their news.
Throughout Trump’s impeachment proceedings, the January 6 insurrection, and the investigation into his alleged national security breaches, Fox News has consistently portrayed those who hold Trump accountable as the real criminals, rather than Trump himself.
Republican leaders, including McCarthy, have followed a similar path, labeling any law enforcement or congressional investigation involving Trump as inherently illegitimate.
As the charges against Trump continue to mount, his supporters are demanding more from the House GOP, including the impeachment of Joe Biden, further investigations into his family’s alleged crimes, and consequences for Attorney General Merrick Garland. To resist this pressure, McCarthy and other GOP leaders are cautiously supporting preliminary inquiries into Biden’s impeachment and allowing House GOP committees to pursue unsubstantiated claims of Trump’s persecution.
Trump’s 2024 GOP primary challengers have also adopted this strategy. Recently, Ron DeSantis suggested that Trump wouldn’t be facing his current legal troubles if he had fulfilled his promise to “drain the swamp,” but this does not necessarily imply criticism of Trump’s actions. DeSantis, like other candidates, continues to blame the system rather than directly holding Trump accountable, knowing that the GOP base will reject any such criticism.
It is impossible to determine whether the GOP primary electorate would be so strongly convinced of Trump’s innocence if Republican leaders had condemned his behavior earlier. However, the detrimental role of Fox News and right-wing media in undermining democracy is evident.
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