First Debate Sets the Stage for Second Place Race

What is the purpose of tonight’s Republican debate?

This question may seem reasonable, especially since the leading candidate, Donald J. Trump, has chosen to skip it.

However, there is an argument to be made that we might gain a clearer understanding of the race in Trump’s absence. We will have the opportunity to observe an important aspect of the race that would have otherwise gone unnoticed.

Let’s begin by addressing a question from James Tucker of Plano, Texas, who brings up a possibility we haven’t discussed before: what if Trump is not in the race?

“Mr. Cohn, I enjoy your columns. Do you see any pollsters asking Republicans: ‘If Trump is not in the race, who would be your choice?’ The possibility is real enough.”

Tonight, without Trump on the debate stage, this possibility will become quite real.

In the coming weeks and months, this possibility might become even more significant.

The special counsel’s office has requested a Jan. 2 trial date for the election subversion case against Trump in Washington. They estimate that it will take four to six weeks to present the evidence. If all goes as planned, a verdict could be reached before the majority of Republican delegates are allocated in March.

As a political analyst, I won’t speculate on the probability of the special counsel obtaining a trial date or a conviction by Super Tuesday on March 5.

However, it is worth noting that Trump’s lead over Ron DeSantis is substantially larger than any previous front-runner who has lost a party nomination at this stage. This suggests that Trump would not typically lose the nomination through conventional means in a conventional race.

Considering these factors, the most likely scenario for Trump’s loss of the nomination would involve the mounting weight of his legal challenges rather than a traditional electoral defeat. This weight could take various forms, potentially impacting Republican voters’ perceptions of the risks Trump faces as a trial approaches.

If we acknowledge that these legal risks are the greatest threat to Trump, it becomes clear that his opponents can strategize accordingly. Instead of directly attacking Trump, they might focus on avoiding conflicts and positioning themselves to win over his supporters should he falter. This strategy has the potential to lead to victory, though for now, it may appear as simply fighting for second place on the debate stage.

A debate strategy proposed by a firm associated with the DeSantis-aligned super PAC Never Back Down aligns with this approach. The strategy suggests partially defending Trump when attacked by Chris Christie, in hopes of maintaining broad appeal to Trump’s supporters. Rather than attacking Trump directly, the memo suggests that DeSantis should focus on Vivek Ramaswamy, who is gaining momentum in national polls.

While Ramaswamy may seem far behind Trump, if DeSantis is running a second-place strategy, falling behind Ramaswamy could be detrimental to his campaign. This could lead to a loss of donors and hinder DeSantis’ ability to capitalize on any potential openings.

It’s important to note that DeSantis is not solely running a second-place strategy. His campaign still has a chance at a conventional victory, especially considering his relative strength in Iowa. Additionally, Trump has pledged to remain in the race, even if he faces legal consequences. Eventually, a second-place strategy would need to evolve into a first-place strategy when the time is right.

Nevertheless, Trump’s decision to skip the debate could prove useful. While I respect the candidates, voters, and the democratic process, it is appropriate to consider the campaign without Trump’s presence on the debate stage. This is the race we have tonight, and it might be the race we have next year.