In a groundbreaking study from the McKinsey Global Institute (MGI), experts have revealed that generative artificial intelligence (AI) and automation may have a greater impact on job loss for women compared to men in the next decade.
The study, released on Wednesday, highlights the potential for nearly 30% of current work hours in the United States to be automated by 2030. This projection is based on the continued development and expansion of generative AI technology, particularly in its language processing capabilities and application to a broader range of occupations.
While certain jobs in STEM, creative fields, business, and legal sectors are expected to be enhanced by AI, other industries such as office support, customer service, and the food service industry could experience further job losses as technology advances.
This shift in the job market is already evident, and experts argue that the recent job market trends are just a glimpse of what can be expected in the coming years. The report reveals that over half of the 8.6 million employees who recently left their jobs belonged to the office support and customer service industries, both of which have a predominantly female workforce. The report predicts that these industries will continue to see reduced demand, with women being 1.5 times more likely than men to have to transition into new occupations.
Experts anticipate that out of the projected 12 million occupational shifts by 2030, 10 million will involve individuals leaving roles within shrinking industries such as office support, customer service, sales, food services, and production work. These positions, including clerks, administrative assistants, retail salespersons, and cashiers, typically involve repetitive tasks, data collection, and processing that can be easily automated.
It’s worth noting that the report also highlights the concentration of Black and Hispanic workers in these declining industries.
The report attributes the continued decline in these industries to factors such as reduced demand for customer-facing roles due to the rise of e-commerce and a decrease in office support roles resulting from automation and a shift towards remote work.
This report adds to the growing body of research that explores the potential impact of artificial intelligence on the future workforce. Previous McKinsey studies estimated that without generative AI, automation would account for 21.5% of work hours in the U.S. economy by 2030. However, with generative AI, this percentage is expected to rise to 29.5% by the same year.
It’s important to note that the report does not suggest that generative AI will completely replace jobs but rather significantly change the workload and activities performed by workers. Those in industries experiencing reduced demand may need to transition into entirely new occupational categories, according to the report’s findings.
While shedding light on how generative AI could transform the workforce, the report also emphasizes the potential for increased labor productivity and the alleviation of labor shortages in the United States.
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