The taxation of property in the eastern German state of Thuringia recently gained national attention when a vote to reduce stamp duty was passed in the regional parliament in Erfurt. This decision caused controversy as it involved collaboration with the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) party, breaking a cross-party taboo. With the AfD gaining significant support in national polls, there is concern that this breach in the cordon sanitaire around the party may be just the beginning.
The Thuringia vote is indicative of the changing and volatile nature of European politics, with the radical right making inroads into mainstream politics. A recent study by 100 political scientists across 31 countries, called New PopuList, reveals that almost one-third of Europeans voted for anti-establishment parties in national elections held last year. Of those, half voted for far-right parties, which are rapidly capturing the votes of disillusioned individuals. Illiberal, nationalist parties currently hold power in Italy, Hungary, and Poland. They also have a share of power in Finland and Sweden, with anti-establishment forces having compelling chances of gaining power in upcoming elections in the Netherlands and Slovakia. Austria’s Freedom Party, which was once ostracized, is leading in polls with elections scheduled for next year.
As Europe grapples with significant challenges such as migration, achieving net-zero emissions, and growing geopolitical instability, this trend is deeply troubling. Nativist anti-immigration sentiments continue to drive most radical-right parties. However, the researchers have found that the climate emergency, the cost of living crisis, culture wars, and post-lockdown conspiracy theories have allowed these parties to diversify their agendas and form new coalitions of voters.
Perhaps the most concerning aspect is how the higher visibility of the radical right is normalizing topics that were once considered extreme. The AfD, for example, which has previously denied climate change, has successfully tapped into anxieties surrounding net-zero measures, triggering a backlash that is permeating mainstream politics. Italy’s prime minister, Giorgia Meloni, aims to merge her radical-right party with the center-right in the European parliament during next year’s European elections. If successful, this project will make it even more challenging to uphold EU values and norms in countries like Viktor Orbán’s Hungary and Poland under the Law and Justice party.
The rightward shift in Europe is not inevitable, but there is a risk that as mainstream parties adopt more of the radical right’s agenda, it becomes so. Years of austerity, followed by the pandemic and economic insecurity, have left less well-off Europeans vulnerable. This has provided an opportunity for populist movements and leaders to exploit. For example, in Poland, the Law and Justice party, which faces upcoming elections in a few weeks, has demonized minorities and irregular migrants while offering generous welfare benefits to struggling families. If progressive forces want to redirect politics towards inclusivity and liberalism, they need to rebuild trust in mainstream politics’ ability to address economic anxieties. The latest findings from the PopuList research highlight the urgency of this task.
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