The Biden administration is making preparations for a potential mass evacuation of American citizens from the Middle East in the event that the violence in Gaza escalates beyond control. This information comes from four officials who are familiar with the US government’s contingency planning. Israeli forces, supported by US weapons and military advisers, are gearing up for a risky ground offensive against Hamas militants. The officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity, emphasized that the evacuation would only be considered in a worst-case scenario, and that there are other more likely outcomes. However, one official stated that it would be irresponsible not to have a plan for all possibilities.
Despite publicly expressing strong support for Israel, the Biden administration is deeply concerned about the potential for further escalation. In recent days, they have been focusing on the logistical challenges of evacuating a large number of people. According to the State Department, there were approximately 600,000 US citizens in Israel and an additional 86,000 in Lebanon at the time of the Hamas attack.
The main concern in Lebanon is Hezbollah, a political and militant group that has controlled the country since 1992. Hezbollah has received training and weapons from Iran, leading to fears that they could launch an attack on Israel from the north, creating a two-front war for Israeli forces. Skirmishes have already occurred along the border between the two countries. One official described the situation as a “real issue” and expressed the administration’s worry that things could spiral out of control.
The administration’s concern extends beyond Israel and Lebanon, as they closely monitor street protests throughout the Arab world. These protests pose an increased risk to both US personnel and citizens in the region. The bombing of Gaza has sparked anger in the region towards Israel and its treatment of Palestinians, a topic that some officials believed had lost importance in the Arab world. Senior fellow Bruce Riedel commented that Palestine has once again become a significant issue, noting that the Arab world never stopped caring about it.
According to Palestinian health officials, over 5,000 people in Gaza, mostly civilians and children, have been killed in relentless Israeli airstrikes since the conflict began on October 7th.
US officials have been hesitant to discuss contingency planning publicly in order to avoid causing panic among Americans in the region. However, their approach has shifted in recent days to acknowledge the potential for other actors to become involved in the conflict. Last week, the State Department issued a warning advising all US citizens worldwide to exercise caution due to increased tensions and the potential for terrorist attacks or violent actions against Americans.
Depending on the scale of an evacuation, it could prove more challenging than previous operations. Experts suggest that it may involve the use of Air Force aircraft or Navy warships, which have already been deployed to the region. Suzanne Maloney, director of foreign policy at the Brookings Institution, stated that it would be difficult to find a comparison to this evacuation in terms of scale, scope, and complexity.
The Pentagon has also indicated that it is preparing for an increase in attacks on US troops in the Middle East. Iran has been singled out for its extensive support of militant groups that have a history of using rockets and drones to target American military positions. Additional missile-defense systems are being deployed in response to this threat. US personnel deployed in Iraq and Syria are particularly vulnerable, as they have been targeted for years by Iranian-backed militias.
There have been reports of US personnel coming under fire since the start of the Israel-Hamas crisis on October 7th. However, the Pentagon has faced challenges in confirming these incidents due to the spread of disinformation and misinformation. So far, no US personnel have been killed or seriously injured as a result of the violence.
Sarah Dadouch in Beirut and Missy Ryan contributed to this report.
