In his book, “How to Expect the Unexpected,” mathematician Dr Kit Yates explores how we can use mathematics to make scientifically informed predictions about the world. He believes that mathematics provides objective tools to surpass the limitations of our own thought processes and cognitive biases that often lead us astray. Rather than being spooked by unusual coincidences, we should expect them to happen all the time.
Yates provides examples of extraordinary coincidences that are actually more likely to occur than we might think. For instance, in a room of 367 people or more, at least two people will share a birthday. Even with fewer people, the likelihood of shared birthdays remains high. Understanding this helps us reframe coincidences and random occurrences, avoiding magical thinking and false conclusions. Instead, we should appreciate and analyze these coincidences as they occur.
The book also addresses biases that affect our decision-making. Yates discusses the normalcy bias, which can prevent people from taking appropriate action in uncertain situations. He also highlights the exponential growth bias, illustrated by the delayed response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Acknowledging uncertainty and utilizing randomness can help us navigate unpredictable situations.
Yates hopes that his book will improve people’s understanding of predictions. He personally learned to interpret weather forecasts more accurately, realizing that the probability of precipitation refers to a specific area and not a guarantee. This led him to always carry an umbrella, even with a low chance of rain. He emphasizes that forecasts may not always align with our expectations, but that doesn’t make them wrong.
The Baader-Meinhof effect, where we encounter unfamiliar information and then see it repeatedly, is another concept Yates explores. He had experienced this himself while researching his book. He discovered that the effect is simply a trick of memory. Unusual information that we may have noticed before now sticks in our minds and seems to appear more frequently. Yates expects to experience the Baader-Meinhof effect frequently, using it as a reminder to pay attention to patterns and coincidences.
Overall, Yates believes that a numerate society is crucial in combating innumeracy and deception with statistics. By understanding biases and embracing uncertainty, we can make better predictions and navigate the random nature of our world.
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