DDespite the visually shocking nature of aircraft disaster images and subsequent conflagration, the reported demise of Yevgeny Prigozhin in a plane crash on Wednesday did not come as a surprise. Prigozhin, the chief of the Wagner group, along with senior commander Dmitry Utkin, was among the ten individuals on board the ill-fated jet, all of whom perished.
The expectation of Prigozhin’s death has been prevalent ever since he led a mutiny with his group of mercenaries two months ago. While he criticized military leaders instead of his patron, Vladimir Putin, this act posed an unprecedented challenge to the Russian president, resulting in him labeling Prigozhin as a traitor. The fact that the mutiny was not forcefully suppressed and concluded with a negotiated settlement added to the humiliation. Last month, CIA chief William Burns raised the question for Russians accustomed to seeing Putin in control, “Does the emperor have no clothes?” or at least, “Why is it taking him so long to get dressed?”
Although there is wild speculation surrounding Prigozhin’s fate, the plane crash seemingly represents a deliberate and dramatic assertion of Putin’s power. Russian journalist Ksenia Sobchak described it as an “absolutely clear signal to all the elites.” Even if there is an alternative cause for the crash, the Kremlin benefits from the assumption of retaliation.
The nationalist right viewed Prigozhin, a violent and brutal figure, as one of their own, sharing his disdain for Russian military leadership in many cases. However, even sympathizers considered the mutiny a step too far. With Prigozhin’s death, fewer individuals will have the courage to speak out, especially as Sergei Surovikin, a close ally, was removed as the commander of aerospace forces and prominent critic Igor Girkin was recently arrested on extremism charges. The message is clear: no challenge will be tolerated.
This warning is not new, as numerous enemies of Putin have met conspicuous demises. While the crash reinforces Putin’s control, it also highlights the repeated failures of the Ukrainian invasion. Prigozhin’s death is unlikely to significantly impact the battlefield, given the withdrawal of Wagner fighters, but it has not extinguished the pervasive frustration with top military officials.
Wagner now appears to be dismantled, having grown due to Prigozhin’s ability to forge alliances with unsavory characters, with its unity largely stemming from his charisma. Its military capabilities often played a lesser role compared to its fearsome reputation. Other private companies may fill the void left by Wagner, but Putin will not allow them unchecked growth and free rein.
Moreover, Wagner may have served its purpose. The importance of plausible deniability has diminished, as last year’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine replaced covert intervention in the region. While Wagner has left a troubling legacy in places like the Central African Republic, Russia has become more transparent about its involvement in Africa, even pursuing alliances with US allies like Kenya. The head of Russian military intelligence’s offensive operations unit was present at the Russia-Africa summit last month. Internationally and domestically, Putin’s intentions are now clearer than ever.
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