The recent assassination of Fernando Villavicencio, a prominent Ecuadorian presidential candidate, has brought a dark cloud over the country’s escalating levels of violence and crime. As a former journalist who campaigned fearlessly against corruption, Villavicencio’s tragic death has raised concerns about the state of affairs in Ecuador. While the incumbent president, Guillermo Lasso, attributes the crime to organized crime groups, further investigations are needed to establish the full truth. It is evident, however, that murder and violence associated with the drug trade have seen a sharp increase in Ecuador in recent years, mirroring a disturbing trend observed in other supposedly secure and stable Latin American countries, such as Chile.
The homicide rate in Ecuador has alarmingly risen by almost five times between 2016 and 2022, reaching 22 people per 100,000. Guayaquil, known as the most violent city, has recorded nearly the same number of violent deaths in the first half of this year alone (1,390) as it did throughout the entirety of last year. Responding to this escalation, President Lasso has declared a national state of emergency following the assassination, following a recent declaration of a state of emergency in prisons due to lethal clashes between inmates. Guayaquil has repeatedly found itself under states of emergency due to horrific acts of violence, including bombings.
This surge in violence is linked to a global increase in the supply and demand for cocaine, as noted by the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime. An influx of European markets and rising fentanyl use by American consumers have further fueled the expansion of Mexican cartels, Balkan gangs, and the ‘Ndrangheta mafia into new territories, including Ecuador. Consequently, this has strengthened local criminal groups, resulting in higher levels of violence. Additionally, counter-drug operations in countries like Brazil, Colombia, and Peru may have displaced some criminal activity to Ecuador.
The situation has led to concerns that Ecuador is teetering on the edge of becoming a narco-state. Its strategic location between the world’s largest cocaine producers, coupled with its porous coastline and thriving fishing and shipping industries, make the country an attractive hub for drug trafficking. The use of the US dollar in Ecuador also simplifies the movement and laundering of illicit funds. However, the root cause of this descent into violence can be traced back to the socio-economic crisis exacerbated by the pandemic and political deadlock. The conservative president’s strained relationship with an opposition-dominated congress led to its dissolution and early elections, creating an environment where crime can infiltrate not only the security forces and judiciary but also politics itself. The strength and focus of drug gangs seem inversely proportional to the state and government’s weakness and distraction.
Past experiences in the region have shown that resorting to brutal crackdowns or tacit agreements with criminal organizations only exacerbates the long-term problems, as currently witnessed in El Salvador. Finding solutions to this crisis is no easy task, but the 18 million citizens of Ecuador lack confidence in their leaders’ determination to address the issue. While crime has greatly impacted the nation’s political climate this week, it is ultimately the failure of political leadership that has allowed this violence to flourish.
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