The military coup in Niger on July 26th, which removed the democratically elected president Mohamed Bazoum from power, is a significant event with implications at local, regional, and global levels. While the immediate impact is felt within Niger itself, a country with a low average income per capita in Africa, it’s important to recognize the interconnectedness of geopolitics, natural resources, climate damage, and migration in our unstable multipolar world. In this context, Niger becomes a pawn on larger boards.
Elected in 2021, President Bazoum had several accomplishments during his tenure. The country’s economy is experiencing a growth rate of 6% this year, efforts to promote girls’ education have been made, and fatalities from Islamist violence have declined. Additionally, Niger served as a key ally to Western nations, particularly France and the United States, in the Sahel region. Western countries have maintained a significant presence in Niger, with over 1,000 troops from France and the US, and smaller numbers from Germany and Italy. The US also operated a drone base near the Libyan border.
However, the trigger for the coup appears to stem from a power struggle between President Bazoum and senior military leaders. The president had recently dismissed the army chief of staff and forced other military chiefs into retirement. It’s not surprising that General Abdourahmane Tchiani, the head of the presidential guard and a key figure in the power battle, emerged as the leader of the junta responsible for overthrowing the former president.
Assessing the popular response to the coup in Niger is challenging. Demonstrations in the capital, Niamey, have displayed both anti-French and pro-Russian sentiments. Anti-French sentiment, in particular, has concerned policymakers in Paris. However, the international response to the coup has been clear-cut, with the UN Security Council denouncing the coup and aid programs being suspended with the support of Russia and China.
While the international response is important, the regional response holds even greater significance. The coup in Niger is part of a dangerous trend, with armed regimes coming to power in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Guinea over the past four years. This trend jeopardizes the stability of other governments in the region and poses a challenge to the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), a 15-member regional organization.
ECOWAS faces a critical test in addressing the coup. As the current chair of ECOWAS, Nigeria plays a crucial role in upholding democratic norms in the region. President Bola Tinubu, who himself experienced forced exile due to a military coup in his youth, has taken the lead in responding to the coup and emphasized the need to draw a line in the sand. ECOWAS has set a deadline for a return to civilian rule and is determined to make an example of Niger. This strong regional response is the most effective way to defeat the coup and restore democracy quickly.
It is essential to recognize that a battle of principles is unfolding in the Sahel, and overturning the coup is of utmost urgency and importance. While a Western-led intervention is not desired, there are still actions that can be taken. ECOWAS’s efforts to exert pressure on Gen Tchiani and his fellow coup leaders have shown some success, as demonstrated by power cuts in Niamey. Western support for ECOWAS’s strong response is the wisest course of action in this situation.
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