Yevgeny Prigozhin abruptly called off his march on Moscow, putting an end to his rebellion against Vladimir Putin. However, the short-lived armed mutiny led by the Wagner group has had a negative impact on Putin’s reputation among both the elite and ordinary Russians. The mercenaries, who had taken control of the Russian southern military command in Rostov-on-Don, raced towards the capital, prompting Putin to warn of a “deadly threat” to the state, and the Moscow mayor to urge residents to stay at home.
While Prigozhin’s uprising may seem like an effort to prevent his private army from being integrated into regular forces, some speculate that there might be a larger intra-elite conflict at play. Prigozhin had become increasingly bold in his attacks against defense minister Sergei Shoigu and commander in chief Valery Gerasimov. Initially, there were suggestions that he might have the Kremlin’s approval. However, on Friday, Prigozhin not only criticized the execution of the war, but also questioned its very rationale. He claimed that Russian forces had killed many of his men in a rocket attack and demanded revenge against the “evil” military leadership. The next day, after Putin accused him of treason, Prigozhin openly challenged his master for the first time.
Prigozhin’s audacity is already staggering. Starting as a small-time criminal, he rose to prominence through a hotdog stand and military catering contracts. Through his network of companies known as Wagner, he sent mercenaries to around 30 countries. He also established troll factories and was indicted in the US for interfering in the 2016 election. Wagner provided Russia with “plausible deniability,” and Prigozhin initially distanced himself from the group, suing media outlets that alleged his involvement before eventually acknowledging his role.
His claim of standing down his men to prevent bloodshed raises questions, considering the atrocities committed by Wagner forces in Ukraine, Syria, the Central African Republic, and other nations. It appears that Prigozhin realized he couldn’t gather enough support for his rebellion. Nevertheless, he has yet to face punishment and is reportedly heading to Belarus with the mediation of its leader, Alexander Lukashenko. The fighters who supported the uprising will supposedly be forgiven, while others will be absorbed into the regular military as planned. The disintegration of the Wagner forces may benefit Ukraine’s counteroffensive, as well as potentially impact Russian troop morale and relations within the ruling clique. This episode and Prigozhin’s survival highlight Putin’s vulnerability.
Putin drew parallels with historical events and warned of the potential destruction of the army and state. Others referred to the events of 1991 when Mikhail Gorbachev faced a coup that ultimately led to the disintegration of the Soviet Union. While it’s unlikely the same fate awaits Putin, his grip on the country is facing significant challenges. In the past 18 months, he has suffered two major setbacks of his own making: his failed attempt to control Ukraine and now the rebellion by his protege using forces he enabled. The uncertainty and humiliation may make him more dangerous. Although Prigozhin’s uprising is seemingly over, the consequences are just beginning to unfold.
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