Straddles are inherently uncomfortable positions to maintain, and China’s efforts to juggle conflicting interests in the Ukraine war have proven to be quite awkward. The country is trying to uphold its strong partnership with Russia while also maintaining its relationships with Western nations, all while protecting its tarnished global brand.
The attention surrounding China’s involvement intensified when its special envoy for Eurasian affairs, Li Hui, participated in talks in Jeddah. This came after Li Hui purposely avoided similar talks in Copenhagen earlier in the summer. European officials described China’s involvement as “active” and “constructive,” indicating that China is maneuvering around the conflict rather than fundamentally repositioning itself.
It’s worth noting that Xi Jinping’s phone call with Volodymyr Zelenskiy in April only happened after a senior diplomat sparked outrage by questioning the sovereignty of former Soviet republics. The Jeddah talks were quickly followed by reassurances to Moscow that nothing had changed.
Many in China view the invasion through a cynical lens rather than a moral one, mainly due to their suspicion of the US and NATO. However, the conflict has conveniently diverted US attention from the tense bilateral relationship with China. Additionally, it has made Russia more dependent on China and reinforced its subordinate position. China also believes that Russia has no intention of a swift exit and is preparing for a prolonged war, especially with the prospect of a second term for Donald Trump, which would significantly benefit Russia. China sees value in monitoring both the modern war and Western responses to gather information that could be useful for its future actions, particularly concerning Taiwan.
The head of MI6, Richard Moore, stated recently that Beijing is “absolutely complicit” in the Ukraine situation, providing diplomatic support to Moscow and promoting Russian narratives. While China hasn’t criticized the invasion outright, it condemns unilateral sanctions. It has also extended economic support to Russia, with Chinese firms supplying both military and civilian equipment such as body armor and drones.
Despite its support for Russia, China is cautious about the conflict escalating or spilling over into the broader region. It is also wary of further consolidating Western power, given the hardened attitudes towards China resulting from its partnership with Russia and recent events like the Wagner mutiny. China wants to be seen as a peacemaker, especially in the eyes of representatives from the global south, as was evident during the talks in Jeddah.
China’s expressions of concern regarding the use of nuclear weapons serve as hints to the West and warnings to Moscow, urging both sides not to push Vladimir Putin too far. If these expressions have any effect in restraining Russia, it can only be seen as a positive outcome. Additionally, as the biggest importer of Ukrainian grain, China has pragmatic reasons for encouraging Russia to resume the Black Sea grain deal. China also emphasizes the need to address the safety of nuclear power plants and possibly hopes to play a marginal role in future negotiations. However, the crucial question remains: will China refrain from increasing its support for Russia? This uncertainty is why Kyiv is treading carefully to avoid antagonizing Beijing.
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